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Daily market snapshot

Published July 11, 2025
 Woman on couch looking at laptop

Friday, 07/11/2025 a.m.

  • Futures point lower – Investors are pricing in a decline in U.S. equities on open this morning following more tariff news overnight*. S&P 500 futures are currently trading 0.5% down compared with the record close last night, while Russell 2000 futures are pointing to a 0.9% decline at open*. Canadian equity-market futures are currently pricing a 0.4% decline*. This follows a weak tone in overnight equity markets, with the Nikkei down 0.2%, and European equities 1.2% lower*. Government bonds are selling off, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield up 2 basis points (0.02%) and the 10-year yield up 4 basis points, driving a small steepening in the yield curve*. Oil is staging a small rebound following the declines over recent sessions, and the dollar is moderately higher against a trade-weighted basket of currencies*.
  • More tariff threats – President Trump announced a higher 35% tariff rate on Canada last night in response to ongoing complaints over fentanyl imports and Canada's 400% tariff on U.S. dairy products*. The rate will come into force on August 1 and apply to goods not compliant with the USMCA trade agreement*. It will apparently stack on top of other sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, but energy-related products will remain at 10%*. More broadly, the president signaled an intention to raise blanket tariff rates to 15%-20% from the 10% baseline tariff in place at present*. He also signaled that the EU would receive a tariff letter shortly outlining its tariff rate to come into force August 1 absent a trade agreement**. Markets had largely brushed off tariff announcements this week, in part reflecting confidence that many of these measures could be averted by trade deals, or further delays in implementation. However, the president is seemingly setting up August 1 as another key deadline around trade policy, and the risk of deeper disruptions to the economy and markets from tariffs is rising again, in our view.
  • Earnings in focus next week - Earnings reports from the second quarter will start to roll in next week, with markets likely watching carefully to see how tariffs are impacting corporate profits and margins. Analysts are expecting 5% annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in aggregate, well down from 13% in the first quarter of this year, according to FactSet consensus estimates*. Expectations have fallen to already capture some of the disruptions seen from policy uncertainty and tariff shifts in recent months. However, markets will be watching closely to see if this impact is more of less pronounced in the earnings data, and which segments of the corporate sector are worst affected.

Investment Strategy

*FactSet
**Bloomberg 
 

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Important Information:

This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique investment objectives and financial situation. While the information is believed to be accurate, it is not guaranteed and is subject to change without notice.

Investors should understand the risks involved in owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of investments fluctuates and investors can lose some or all of their principal.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Market indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly and are not meant to depict an actual investment.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

Systematic investing does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.

Dividends may be increased, decreased or eliminated at any time without notice.

Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign political and economic events.

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