Friday, 3/6/2026 p.m.

• Spike in oil prices continues to rattle markets - As the Middle East conflict entered its seventh day, attention stayed on oil markets, where prices logged their biggest weekly surge in more than two decades—up 35%, surpassing the initial jump seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overnight, Qatar cautioned that Gulf producers may be forced to halt output within days, while the U.S. administration is exploring steps to ease price pressures. In that vein, the U.S. Treasury granted India a temporary license to increase purchases of Russian oil. While geopolitics remain the dominant driver of volatility, today’s U.S. data added to the risk‑off tone. Payrolls unexpectedly declined, and retail sales fell, largely due to severe winter weather. In markets, energy and defensive sectors outperformed. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a safe haven, reaching a three‑month high against the euro. Government bonds, however, remained under pressure this week as the surge in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher.
   
• Weak U.S. jobs data add to investor caution - The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, partly reversing January’s surprise payroll gain. Unemployment remains relatively low, but job losses were broad, with declines across both the private and government sectors. The weak report challenges the recent stabilization narrative and places the Fed in a difficult position, particularly as the rise in oil prices adds near‑term inflation pressure. As with any single monthly datapoint, we should avoid overextrapolating the trend—severe weather and labor disruptions may have weighed on hiring. Still, with global geopolitical uncertainty elevated, we think it is reasonable to expect that job growth may remain subdued in the months ahead. We continue to believe the Fed will be inclined to cut rates later this year, likely one or two times.
   
• Gauging the impact of the Middle East conflict - The economic consequences of the conflict will likely hinge on its duration and the extent of disruption to energy supplies—both difficult to forecast. Regionally, Asia and Europe are particularly exposed given their reliance on imported oil that moves through Middle Eastern shipping lanes. With no immediate signs of resolution, WTI crude is now at its highest level since late 2023, adding to inflation pressures that could weigh on consumer spending. Even so, history shows that geopolitical shocks typically have short‑lived market effects. Oil prices often rise in anticipation of major events and peak shortly afterward. For instance, WTI peaked just 10 days after the Israel–Iran conflict in the summer of 2025 and roughly three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.* Canada is a significant net exporter of oil, and rising global energy prices often benefit Canadian producers, government revenues, and the broader resource sector. While consumers face higher fuel costs, the overall macroeconomic impact is more balanced than in countries reliant on imported oil. South of the border, the U.S. has been a net exporter of oil since 2019, and the economy is far less energy‑intensive than in prior decades. Since 1950, the energy required to produce one unit of U.S. GDP has fallen by roughly 70%, driven by efficiency gains and the growth of the services sector.* We therefore caution against making reactionary portfolio changes in response to headline‑driven global events, as such moves often come at the expense of long‑term returns*.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: Bloomberg. 
Sources for data cited: *Bloomberg, Edward Jones}

Thursday, 3/5/2026 p.m.

•  Markets close lower, pressured by climbing oil prices – The TSX and U.S. equity markets finished lower on Thursday, with the pullback led by weakness in consumer staples and materials — sectors that are sensitive to input costs. In international markets, Asia rebounded overnight, while Europe was down. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, as investors likely seek the stability of the world's reserve currency. Energy markets remain a central focus for investors, as WTI oil briefly topped $80 per barrel for the first time since 2024. Disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supply.
  
  Despite near-term volatility, we continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes. Within equities, we favour U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, which we believe stand to benefit from their quality and broadening leadership. We also see potential in overseas developed small- and mid-cap and emerging-market equities, supported by resilient global economic growth and relatively attractive valuations. Within fixed income, we think international bonds can add diversification through exposure to different economic and interest-rate cycles, while emerging-market debt may also enhance income.
   
• Jobless claims unchanged – U.S. initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000 this past week, slightly below the 215,000 expected. Continuing claims — reflecting the total number of people receiving benefits — rose modestly to 1.87 million, suggesting some workers are taking longer to find new employment. Tomorrow's jobs report will offer a deeper look at the labour market, with forecasts calling for a gain of 60,000 jobs for February, enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. We think these trends remain consistent with a stabilizing labour market. Slower job creation alongside a moderate pace of layoffs should help keep wage gains above inflation, in our view, helping provide disposable income to support consumer spending and the economy.
   
• Bond yields edge higher – Bond yields rose for the fourth straight day, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.33% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.13%. The move primarily reflects expectations that higher inflation — partially influenced by rising oil prices — could delay Fed rate cuts. Markets have pushed expectations for the next rate cut out to September of this year and the second cut to 2027*, aligning with the Fed's latest projections**. In addition, inflation expectations — a key component of bond yields — have risen. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets have climbed about 5 basis points (0.05%) since late last week to roughly 2.3%***. We think the Fed remains positioned to continue cutting rates, though the path may be slower. In our view, the steady labour backdrop should allow policymakers more time to confirm that the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation — currently 2.9% — is easing sustainably toward the 2% target before proceeding with additional cuts. The Bank of Canada appears to be on hold as well, with the policy rate at the low end of the central bank's own 2.25% - 3.25% estimate for neutral rates****.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Sources for data cited: *CME FedWatch **U.S. Federal Reserve ***Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ****Bank of Canada}

Wednesday, 3/4/2026 p.m.

• Stocks gain on healthy U.S. economic data – North American equity markets closed higher on Wednesday, supported by better‑than‑expected readings from both the ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI. On the employment front, U.S. private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, above expectations for a gain of roughly 50,000 and pointing to stabilization in U.S. labour‑market conditions. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February—well above consensus expectations and the highest reading since July 2022. From a leadership standpoint, most sectors within the S&P 500 finished higher, with growth‑oriented sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary outperforming. Overseas, markets in Asia closed sharply lower overnight, while European markets partially recovered losses from earlier in the week and ended higher. Bond yields rose following the strong U.S. economic data, with the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.09% and the 10‑year GoC yield reaching 3.26%. In commodity markets, oil prices continued to trend higher amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, with WTI crude closing just above $75 per barrel.
   
• Oil price spike weighs on overseas stocks – The conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, with WTI crude rising above $70 per barrel for the first time since last summer. Canadian and U.S. equities are modestly lower this week; however, overseas markets have experienced a sharper pullback. The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen more than 4% this week, while Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 8%. In emerging markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has declined about 5% this week, and Korea’s KOSPI has fallen 18%. A higher reliance on imported energy in these regions is likely contributing to the more pronounced weakness abroad. According to the World Bank, the euro area imports roughly 68% of its energy consumption, while Japan and Korea import more than 80%; by contrast, Canada and the United States are net exporters of oil*. In our view, the recent pullback in overseas stocks could present an attractive entry point for long‑term investors. Historically, oil price spikes tied to geopolitical conflict have tended to be short‑lived, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects global petroleum production to outpace consumption over the next two years, which could limit a sustained rise in prices.** We believe opportunities are particularly compelling in overseas developed small‑ and mid‑cap equities and in emerging‑market equities.
   
• U.S. private payrolls expanded in February – The February ADP report showed that U.S. private employment rose by 63,000—exceeding expectations for a 50,000 gain and marking the strongest monthly increase since last July. Job growth was broad-based, with gains across goods‑producing industries and service sectors, led by strength in education and health services, Additionally, small businesses—those with 1–19 employees—accounted for the lion’s share of job growth, with payrolls rising by 58,000, the strongest increase since January 2024. In our view, today’s report points to continued stabilization in labour‑market conditions, which should help support economic growth over the course of the year. U.S. labour‑market data remain in focus this week, with February nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due Friday. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% and for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Sources for data cited: *World Bank, Energy imports, net (% of energy use) **U.S. Energy Information Administration}

Tuesday, 3/3/2026 p.m.

• Markets close lower as investors monitor oil prices – The TSX and U.S. equity markets finished lower on Tuesday after rebounding from a steeper intraday pullback. Asian and European markets also ended down. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, as investors likely seek the stability of the world's reserve currency. We continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes, including in areas like cyclical and value sectors, which can hold up better when energy prices rise; U.S. mid-cap stocks, which have more domestic exposure; and emerging markets and parts of international equities, which have exposure to global technology opportunities.
   
• Oil prices rise further on disruptions – WTI oil prices are up roughly 10% from late last week on supply concerns tied to disruptions to oil production and transportation. Production of both oil and natural gas is being affected by attacks on energy infrastructure, while oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) tankers are being delayed or rerouted amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. President Trump announced measures to provide risk insurance to ships traveling through the region, including oil tankers. In addition, the U.S. Navy will escort ships if necessary. While oil prices could rise further in the near term, similar geopolitical shocks have not produced sustained oil price surges in recent years*.
   
• Bond yields edge higher – Bond yields rose for the second straight day, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.24% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.06%. The move appears to be driven primarily by higher inflation expectations — one component of bond yields — likely reflecting rising oil prices. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets have increased about 10 basis points (0.10%) since late last week to about 2.3%. Bond markets also reflect that higher inflation could delay Fed rate cuts. Markets are pricing in expectations for two cuts to the Fed's policy rate later this year to the 3.0% - 3.25% range, followed by one additional cut next year**. This remains a faster pace than the Fed's own projection for one cut this year and another next year***. The Bank of Canada appears to be on hold in the near term as well, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. Sources for data cited: *U.S. Energy Information Administration **CME FedWatch ***U.S. Federal Reserve}

Monday, 3/2/2026 p.m.

Geopolitical worries rise after attack on Iran

The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran over the weekend, prompting Iran to respond with counterattacks against multiple cities in the Middle East. First and foremost, we know that this is a human tragedy, and there is uncertainty on how long this conflict will last, and what the total loss may look like. As we help our clients navigate this geopolitical crisis, we'll continue to highlight key market perspectives.

Iran is a sizeable oil producer, the fourth largest within OPEC, accounting for roughly 4% of global oil supplies, with about 80% of its exports going to China. The country also sits in a strategically important position: it controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

Three Key Market Implications:

1) We believe the biggest impacts may be seen in oil and commodity markets.

We have already seen WTI crude oil move higher about 15% this year, prior to the Iran conflict. And we saw another 6%-plus move higher after the conflict began.

Despite the fluid situation, history offers perspective. Over the past 15 years, similar geopolitical shocks have not produced sustained oil price surges or prolonged market turmoil. Structural changes in the economy also provide resilience:

• The U.S. and Canada have been net petroleum exporters for several years. Energy spending as a share of GDP has declined due to efficiency improvements and a shift toward services.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the global oil market is currently in significant oversupply, a trend expected to continue through 2026.
• With affordability remaining a key issue ahead of the November mid‑term elections, the administration is likely seeking to prevent a sustained rise in oil prices.

2) Markets may be volatile but are reacting in line with expectations.

Markets began the day sharply lower, but have since recovered, with the S&P 500 and Canadian TSX ending modestly higher on Monday. The S&P 500 is still up about 17% over the past year and remains just 2%-3% below all-time highs. The U.S. dollar was also higher, while global equities closed sharply lower, given most of these economies are more heavily reliant on oil imports than the U.S. or Canada. We also saw some flight-to-safety in precious metals, with spot gold prices up modestly around 1%.

Of note, U.S. and Canadian government bond yields were sharply higher as prices moved lower. This may be in part because there is some fear of higher oil prices leading to higher inflationary pressures. However, this is a more likely scenario only if higher energy prices are sustained for an extended period. Even with WTI now at around $71, prices are below the five-year average of $76. A sustained move to over $100, for example, would present a much more acute disruption in our view, although we are far from these levels and would not expect that outsized move as our base case.

3) Finally, we know geopolitical headlines can create noise and anxiety – staying calm, staying diversified, and staying invested matters.

We know playing politics with portfolios is never a great investment strategy. We continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes, including in areas like cyclical and value sectors, which can hold up better as energy markets rise; U.S. mid-cap stocks, which have more domestic exposure; and emerging markets and parts of international equities, which have exposure to global technology opportunities.

Bottom line

While the situation remains dynamic, both historical patterns and market fundamentals offer some reassurance. Geopolitical flare‑ups can create volatility, but recent episodes have produced limited and short‑lived market impacts. Your financial advisor can help you make sure you have a solid financial plan and diversified investment strategy in place to navigate uncertainty that may lie ahead.

Mona Mahajan;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg}

The impact of oil shocks on equity and commodity markets tends to be short-lived:

^{Source: Bloomberg, Edward Jones. Past performance does not guarantee future results. An index is unmanaged, cannot be invested into directly and is not meant to depict an actual investment.}