Daily market snapshot

Published April 8, 2025
 Woman on couch looking at laptop

Tuesday, 04/8/2025 p.m.

  • Equities finish lower with tariffs in focus – North American equity markets closed lower on Tuesday, reversing gains at the open, as investors continue to digest the latest tariff headlines. Reports surfaced that the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on imports from China in response to the 34% retaliatory tariffs China announced last week.* The additional 50% duty on imports from China will bring the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports to 104%. Markets responded in risk-off fashion with the TSX and S&P 500 closing lower, and the S&P 500 closing roughly 19% below its February 19 all-time high.* At a sector level, commodity sensitive sectors such as energy and materials were among the worst performers while defensive sectors such as utilities fared better.* On the economic front, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 97.4 in March, slightly below the long-run average of 98, and signaling that policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on sentiment in small businesses.* After a sharp move higher yesterday, bond yields continued their upward trend today with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.28% while the 10-year GoC yield rose to 3.1%.*
     
  • While never comfortable, volatility is a normal part of investing – As long-term investors, it's important to remember that volatility, while never comfortable, is a normal part of investing. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has declined by 20% or more from an all-time high on eight occasions.** However, in the one, six and 12 months following the day the S&P 500 first declined by 20% from an all-time high, returns were positive on average.
     

    • 1-month: The average return in the S&P 500 one month following a 20% decline from an all-time high was 4.1%.**
    • 6-month: The average return in the S&P 500 six months following a 20% decline from an all-time high was 0.7%.**
    • 12-month: The average return in the S&P 500 12 months following a 20% decline from an all-time high was 10.5%.**
       

    While there is no guarantee history will repeat itself, stocks have tended to rebound after sharp drawdowns. With the U.S. and Canadian economies entering this period from a position of strength and the potential for trade negotiations over the coming weeks to provide relief to markets, we believe investors are best served by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio aligned to their goals, as opposed to making investment decisions driven by emotion.
     

  • U.S. inflation data in focus: Key U.S. inflation data will be in focus later this week with the release of March consumer price index (CPI). Expectations are for headline CPI to rise by 2.6% on an annual basis, while core CPI is expected to rise by 3%, both lower than the prior readings.* With the most stringent of the proposed U.S. tariffs not set to take effect until tomorrow, Thursday's CPI reading is unlikely to be meaningfully impacted by tariffs. In our view, the proposed tariffs will likely put upward pressure on inflation in the near-term. U.S. importers will face higher costs and are likely to pass on part of this to consumers. However, we don't believe that tariffs represent an ongoing source of inflation that would cause long-run inflation expectations to become unanchored. In fact, the U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which is a market-based measure of inflation expectations over the next 10 years, has declined to below 2.2%, near the low end of its three-year range.* We believe this signals that longer-term U.S. inflation expectations remain anchored and that the downside risks to economic growth from the proposed tariffs are potentially more acute than the upside risks to inflation. In our view, this will give the Fed flexibility to lower rates if economic growth shows meaningful signs of slowing.
 This table shows the returns one, six and twelve months following the day the S&P 500 first declined by 20% or more from its previous all-time high
Source: Morningstar Direct. S&P 500 Price Index.

Brock Weimer, CFA
Investment Strategy

Source: *FactSet **FactSet, Edward Jones. S&P 500 Price Index. 

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Important Information:

This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique investment objectives and financial situation. While the information is believed to be accurate, it is not guaranteed and is subject to change without notice.

Investors should understand the risks involved in owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of investments fluctuates and investors can lose some or all of their principal.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Market indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly and are not meant to depict an actual investment.

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Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign political and economic events.

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