Daily market snapshot

Published July 15, 2025
 Woman on couch looking at laptop

Tuesday, 07/15/2025 p.m.

  • Equities closed mixed after June inflation comes in line with forecasts – Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Canadian TSX lower, while the Nasdaq climbed higher. This comes as both the U.S. and Canadian CPI inflation reports for June were in line with forecasts. Earnings season also officially kicked off on Tuesday, with big banks like J.P. Morgan exceeding expectations. Despite today's moves, markets have been resilient, with the S&P 500 and Canadian TSX up over 20% since the April 8 lows*. Meanwhile, Canadian government bond yields and Treasury bond yields climbed today, with yields now at the upper end of their recent range as equity markets have recovered. In our view, while stock markets may experience bouts of volatility in the weeks ahead as tariff headlines re-emerge, we continue to see pullbacks as opportunities to rebalance, diversify, and add quality investments at better prices.
     
  • CPI inflation continues to remain contained – U.S. and Canadian consumer price index (CPI) inflation for June came out on Tuesday morning in line with forecasts. U.S. headline CPI was 2.7% year-over-year, a tick above expectations of 2.6% and higher than last month's 2.4%*. Core CPI, excluding the more volatile food and energy, was 2.9% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and slightly higher than last month's 2.8%. In Canada, headline CPI inflation was 1.9% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and above last month's 1.7%. Core CPI in Canada, however, was 3.1%, slightly above expectations of 3.0%*. In the U.S., certain food categories, including meat and dairy, new and used cars, and airline fare prices all fell monthly*. Overall, while tariff rates have moved higher since the start of the year, we have seen inflation rates remain contained, in the 2.0% to 3.0% range*. Tariff rates are likely to move higher in the weeks ahead, but companies may have built inventories or adjusted supply chains to offset some of these higher rates. Nonetheless, we would expect inflation to move higher in the months ahead, perhaps above 3.0%, although this may be a one-time price adjustment that eases over the next 12 months. 
     
  • Earnings season kicks off on a positive note – S&P 500 corporate earnings kicked off in earnest on Tuesday morning, with big banks like J.P. Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo reporting second-quarter earnings. Thus far, banks have exceeded earnings forecasts, with banks like J.P. Morgan benefiting from higher trading and investment banking revenue. Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter is expected to be close to 5%, well below the 11% estimate that was forecast at the start of the year*. Nonetheless, full-year earnings growth is expected to be high-single-digits in 2025, and potentially re-accelerating to double-digits in 2026*. In our view, a combination of the Fed and the Bank of Canada potentially lowering rates, modest fiscal stimulus from the U.S. tax bill next year, and some deregulation, should all be supportive of economic and earnings growth in 2026.

Mona Mahajan
Investment Strategy

*FactSet
 

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