• Equities close mostly lower amid tech weakness and renewed geopolitical tension – Canadian equity markets were little changed while U.S. equity markets traded lower on Tuesday, as weakness in technology shares weighed on U.S. indices. Semiconductors were a notable laggard within the technology sector, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling more than 4% on the day. The decline followed preliminary second-quarter results from Samsung Electronics, which reported a record quarter; however, the strong results were overshadowed by concerns about whether the robust pace of spending on components needed to build out AI infrastructure can continue at the same rate. The TSX outperformed, supported by strength in the energy sector as oil prices finished nearly 5% higher. The move in oil prices followed renewed geopolitical tensions after a military flare-up between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year GoC yield was little changed on the day, finishing at 3.41%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield traded higher to 4.55%.
   
• Second-quarter earnings season on the horizon – After a strong first half of 2026, investor attention will shift to second-quarter earnings season, which begins next week with several large U.S. financial institutions scheduled to report results. Expectations are for the robust profit growth seen in the first quarter to continue, with consensus estimates calling for S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 22% year-over-year in the second quarter. At the sector level, information technology and energy are expected to drive much of the growth. Technology-sector earnings are projected to increase by more than 60%, supported by continued investment in AI infrastructure and related technologies. Meanwhile, energy-sector profits are expected to more than double from a year ago, benefiting from higher oil prices during the second quarter. For the full year, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 24% year-over-year. If realized, this would mark the strongest annual profit growth since 2014, excluding the post-pandemic recovery period. We continue to believe the economic backdrop remains supportive for equities, underpinned by stable labour-market conditions and improving manufacturing activity. These factors should support healthy earnings growth in the quarters ahead and provide a favourable environment for equity markets, in our view.
   
• Midyear performance check-in – Global equity markets have started 2026 on a strong footing, with the TSX higher by 12.3% and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 15%, including dividends, through yesterday's close. These healthy year-to-date returns have come despite an oil price shock and heightened geopolitical uncertainty during the second quarter, as strong corporate earnings growth and resilient economic activity have continued to support investor sentiment. Gains have also been broad-based beyond the TSX and S&P 500. U.S. mid- and small-cap equities have outperformed, with the Russell 2500 up by nearly 27% through yesterday's close. Overseas markets have also delivered solid returns, with developed-market equities advancing more than 15% and emerging-market stocks rallying nearly 29%, with performance in emerging markets supported by technology-heavy regions such as Taiwan and South Korea, which have benefited from robust AI-related spending trends. Given resilient economic activity and strong corporate earnings growth, we believe the backdrop for equities remains favourable. As part of our opportunistic asset allocation guidance, we recommend investors maintain an overweight allocation to equities relative to bonds, with a preference for U.S. large-cap stocks, Canadian small- and mid-cap stocks and emerging-market equities.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Markets start the week mixed as tech stocks rebound – The TSX closed lower, while U.S. equity markets advanced on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high. Bond yields moved lower, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.42% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.47%. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, while Europe was broadly lower. In energy markets, WTI oil prices were little changed, remaining below $70 per barrel, following the OPEC+ decision to increase output. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly against major currencies.
   
• Services indexes mixed: The final S&P Canada Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 47.1 in June from 50.6 in May as new business volume was impacted by higher prices and geopolitical uncertainty. While the decline marks the fifth reading below 50 reflecting contraction this year, there were some encouraging elements beneath the headline. Employment increased modestly, suggesting firms remain willing to add capacity despite softer demand, while input cost and selling price inflation both eased. The final S&P U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May, supported by an increase in new business. While the reading narrowly missed estimates, it remained above the key 50.0 threshold signaling expansion for a third consecutive month. Price pressures eased but remained elevated, reflecting the impact of tariffs and higher fuel costs. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI slowed to 54.0 in June, as expected, from 54.5 in May. The moderation was driven by slower growth in business activity, new orders and supplier deliveries, partly mitigated by an improvement in employment, which returned to expansion. Overall, we view these readings positively. Continued expansion in services — the largest segment of the economy — should help support broader growth and labour-market stability.
   
• Bond yields edge lower – Bond yields moved lower, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.42% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.47%. Today's move marked a modest reversal of the recent trend higher as markets have priced in expectations that the Fed's next move could be a rate hike. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has risen in recent months, partly reflecting higher energy prices. The headline figure moved above 4% in May, while core inflation increased more moderately. With both measures meaningfully above the 2% target, the Fed likely has little room to ease policy, in our view. We also believe the resilient labour market gives policymakers more room to prioritize inflation risks. The unemployment rate remains contained at 4.2%, in line with the Fed's long-run projection, which is widely viewed as its estimate of full employment. While markets reflect some likelihood of a rate hike, we believe a prolonged pause is the most likely outcome. The Fed is unlikely to ease while inflation is moving higher, but there is not yet consensus for tightening among policymakers. Even if the Fed delivers a single rate hike, we believe markets would likely view it as a mid-cycle adjustment, rather than the start of a renewed tightening cycle, provided inflation expectations remain contained.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

Holiday: There was no Daily Snapshot on Friday, July 3, 2026, in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

• Stocks finish mixed following U.S. employment data – Equity markets were mixed on Thursday following the U.S. payrolls report for June, which showed nonfarm employment rose by 57,000, below expectations for a gain of more than 100,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. From a leadership perspective, growth sectors such as technology and communication services were among the laggards, weighing on the tech-heavy Nasdaq which declined 0.8% on the day. The TSX & S&P 500 fared better, each finishing roughly flat. Overseas, markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight, with Korea’s KOSPI falling nearly 8% amid weakness in semiconductor shares. European markets, however, closed firmly higher after the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.2%, tying a record low. In bond markets, short-term Treasury yields were modestly lower following the below-consensus job gains, while longer-term U.S. Treasury yields were little changed. In Canada, bond yields climbed higher for the day, with the 10-year GoC yield settling around 3.45%.
   
• U.S. job growth slows, but labour-market conditions remain stable – U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, falling short of economists’ expectations for a gain of more than 100,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, though the decline was primarily driven by a smaller labour force. On the payroll side, private employment accounted for most of the increase, rising by 49,000, while government employment added 8,000 jobs. At the industry level, health care and social assistance continued their recent streak of strong job growth; however, a surprising 61,000 decline in leisure and hospitality employment weighed on overall services-sector job creation. In addition, payroll growth for the prior two months was revised lower by a combined 74,000, suggesting a slower but still healthy pace of hiring. Over the past three months, payroll gains have averaged 111,000 per month. Overall, we would characterize today’s employment report as evidence of ongoing stability in U.S. labour-market conditions, which should continue to support economic activity through year-end.
   
• A strong first half has historically been followed by further gains for stocks – North American equities posted solid gains in the first half of 2026, with the TSX returning 11.2%, including dividends. This marked the second consecutive year in which the index gained 10% or more during the first six months. South of the border, the S&P 500 returned 10.2% through June. Historically, a strong first half has often been followed by additional gains in the second half of the year. Since 1980, there have been 15 years, including 2026, in which the TSX returned more than 10% during the first half.* Excluding 2026, second-half returns were positive in 10 of those 14 years, or 71% of the time, with an average return of 3.8%.* In the U.S., historical returns have been even more favourable following a strong first half. Since 1980, there have been 19 years, including 2026, in which the S&P 500 returned more than 10% during the first half.* Excluding 2026, second-half returns were positive in 16 of those 18 years, or 89% of the time, with an average gain of 8.2%.* Looking at the 10 most recent instances of first-half returns above 10% for the S&P 500, second-half returns were positive every time, with an average gain of 11%.* While there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself in 2026, we believe the backdrop for equity markets remains supportive, underpinned by strong global corporate profit growth and resurgent manufacturing activity.

Brock Weimer, CFA
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Source for data cited: *Morningstar Direct, S&P 500 Total Return, S&P/TSX Composite Total Return, Edward Jones}

• Markets start the month lower as tech stocks pull back – U.S. equity markets closed lower on Wednesday, pressured by weakness in the technology sector, while Canadian markets were closed in observance of Canada Day. As widely expected, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. will not renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in its current form. The decision begins a period of annual reviews during which the agreement will remain in force while negotiations continue. CUSMA tariffs and trade rules remain unchanged for now, though businesses and supply chains will likely face greater policy uncertainty.  Bond yields moved higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.48%. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, while Europe was broadly lower. In energy markets, WTI oil is below $70 per barrel, erasing most of its gains following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. If sustained, lower oil prices would likely help ease inflation concerns and help support consumer sentiment, though the geopolitical risks remain fluid and could continue to drive market volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar advanced against major currencies.
• Employment report shows slower job growth – The ADP employment survey showed private-sector employment (excluding government workers) rose by 98,000 in June, down from growth of 122,000 in May and below forecasts for 110,000. Job gains were concentrated in education and health services (+48,000), trade, transportation, and utilities (+15,000) and financial activities (+14,000). Annual pay gains held steady a 4.4%, continuing to provide real income growth that is above inflation and supporting consumer spending. Overall, we view these readings as broadly consistent with other recent data showing a resilient labour market that should continue to provide growing employment and wages. Importantly, fewer job gains may be needed to keep the unemployment rate contained, in our view, given slower labour-force growth due to an aging workforce and tighter immigration enforcement. Tomorrow's employment report should provide a fuller picture, with consensus estimates calling for 100,000 job gains in June, including government workers, enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
• Manufacturing indexes remain in expansion though pace slows: The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June declined to 53.9, compared with forecasts for 55.5. Despite the downward revision, the index remained above the key 50.0 threshold reflecting expansion for the 11th consecutive month. The headline reading was supported by gains in output and new orders, though the pace of growth moderated. Encouragingly, both input and output price inflation slowed, suggesting that some cost pressures may be stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for June also moved lower to 53.3, below expectations for 53.9. Within ISM's components, supplier deliveries, production and new orders drove the decline, partly mitigated by improvement in inventories and employment. Overall, we view these readings positively, as manufacturing activity continues to expand, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, helping provide broader support for the economy and labour market.

Brian Therien, CFA
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}