Stock & Bond Markets Today

Tuesday, 3/10/2026 p.m.

Stocks mixed as oil declines – North American equity markets were mixed on Tuesday, with the TSX logging a modest gain while U.S. markets were little changed. Oil prices stabilized around $87 per barrel after briefly surging above $100 per barrel in yesterday's session, before retreating following comments from U.S. President Trump indicating that the conflict in Iran could be nearing an end. Overseas, Asian markets were sharply higher overnight on optimism around a potential near‑term off‑ramp in the conflict. Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 3%, while Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 5%. European markets also traded higher, supported by the pullback in oil prices. In fixed-income markets, government bond yields in Canada were lower, with the 10-year GoC yield closing at 3.38% while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.15%.
Key U.S. inflation data on the horizon – Inflation—and its implications for monetary policy—will be a key focus for investors through the remainder of the week, with U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due tomorrow and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) released on Friday. Economists expect both headline and core CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year, while headline and core PCE are projected to increase 2.9%. The recent surge in oil prices has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve interest‑rate cuts. Futures markets now imply only one full rate cut in 2026 and roughly a 50% probability of a second. While the Fed typically looks through inflation stemming from an oil‑related supply shock, the backdrop of persistently above‑target inflation since 2021—combined with past supply‑chain disruptions that fed into broader price pressures—suggests policymakers may proceed cautiously if elevated oil prices persist. Uncertainty remains around the duration of the conflict, but comments from President Trump yesterday indicated it may be nearing an end, contributing to a pullback in oil prices in the afternoon session. Oil futures also point to moderation ahead, with prices projected to fall below $80 per barrel by July and toward $70 by year‑ If this scenario unfolds, headline CPI would likely face some upward pressure in the near term; however, we expect the Fed to maintain its easing bias, ultimately delivering one or two rate cuts, in our view—even if the timing shifts later into 2026 or 2027.
Equity leadership amid the Iran conflict – The conflict in Iran and the surge in oil prices have weighed on risk sentiment, leaving global equity markets broadly lower since the conflict began. Despite a rebound in today’s session, overseas markets have been among the laggards, with Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 8% month‑to‑date and Korea’s KOSPI Index down more than 11%. European equities are also weaker, with the Euro U.Stoxx 50 lower by more than 5%. In our view, the higher reliance of many overseas markets on energy imports has left them more vulnerable to oil‑price shocks, contributing to the recent equity‑market weakness. Despite being a large net exporter of energy, Canadian markets have weakened as well, with the TSX down around 3% this month, driven by a pullback in the materials sector. The U.S. has been a relative outperformer, with the U.S&P 500 down just over 1% in March. The technology sector has been a standout, rising more than 1% this month, supported by a rebound in the software industry, which is up 4.5%. History suggests that geopolitical conflicts have typically had a short‑lived impact on markets. Thus, we believe opportunities remain attractive across global equities over the coming year, and we continue to recommend an overweight to equities relative to bonds. U.Specifically, we see compelling opportunities in U.S. stocks, overseas developed small‑ and mid‑cap stocks, and emerging‑market equities.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Monday, 3/9/2026 p.m.

Stocks rebound on potential conflict off-ramp – North American equity markets closed higher on Monday, reversing sharp losses at the open following comments from U.S. President Trump indicating that the conflict in Iran could be over soon. After briefly approaching $120 per barrel overnight, WTI crude oil fell sharply and finished below $90 per barrel as markets reacted to the possibility of a near‑term off‑ramp to the conflict. From a sector‑leadership perspective, technology outperformed, gaining more than 1% and extending its recent trend of relative strength. Energy and financials were the only sectors of the U.S&P 500 to finish lower. International equities weakened, with Asian markets down sharply overnight and major European indexes closing lower as well. Government bond yields also moved lower Monday afternoon following President Trump's comments, with the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.1% and the 10‑year GoC yield slipping to 3.37%.
Oil price shocks and the economy – The economic impact of the conflict will likely depend largely on its duration and the extent of further disruptions to energy supplies—both of which are difficult to forecast. With oil prices now at their highest level since 2022, upward pressure on headline inflation is likely, which could act as a headwind to economic activity. However, as noted in our Market Pulse, geopolitical events have historically produced only short‑term effects on financial markets. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and rising energy prices could benefit Canadian producers, government revenues and the broader resource sector. The U.S. is also a net exporter of oil, and its energy intensity—defined as total energy consumption divided by real GDP—has declined by roughly 70% since the 1950s*. In addition, as highlighted in our Weekly Market Wrap, we believe oil prices would need to rise and remain materially above current levels to pose a meaningful risk of recession. The U.S. has also entered this period with solid economic momentum. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and U.Services PMIs were firmly in expansionary territory for February, indicating healthy business activity. While Friday’s job report showed softer‑than‑expected employment gains, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, and layoffs appear contained, with initial jobless claims averaging 216,000 over the past four weeks. In Canada, the CFIB Business Barometer–a small-business survey to track business confidence, expectations and current conditions– rose to its highest since 2022 in February, and the Canadian unemployment rate remains contained at 6.5%. Given these factors, we recommend that investors avoid making portfolio changes in reaction to headlines and instead maintain a well‑diversified strategy aligned with their long‑term goals.
Portfolio opportunities amid market volatility – The duration and extent of supply disruptions stemming from the conflict remain uncertain, but we believe a healthy economic and market backdrop provides a measure of reassurance. Although geopolitical events can generate periods of short‑term volatility, they have historically resulted in limited lasting effects on markets. Accordingly, we continue to recommend that investors take a globally diversified approach to overweighting stocks versus bonds. In particular, we see attractive opportunities in U.S. stocks. Healthy U.S. economic activity, supportive tax policy, and strong AI‑related spending trends may continue to provide a constructive backdrop for U.S. equities, in our view. We also see attractive opportunities overseas, particularly within emerging‑market equities and overseas developed small‑ and mid‑cap stocks. The conflict in the Middle East has exerted more pressure on international markets, especially in regions such as Asia and Europe, which are more dependent on imported energy. Even so, economic momentum abroad has strengthened in recent months. The U.S&P Global Composite PMI—a survey‑based measure of business activity—recently rose to its highest level since May 2023 in Japan and China, while readings in the eurozone and the United Kingdom also remained in expansionary territory. While geopolitical headlines may heighten near‑term uncertainty, we believe investors are best served by adhering to a disciplined, long‑term investment strategy instead of reacting to headlines. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Sources for data cited: *U.S. Energy Information Administration}

Friday, 3/6/2026 p.m.

Spike in oil prices continues to rattle markets - As the Middle East conflict entered its seventh day, attention stayed on oil markets, where prices logged their biggest weekly surge in more than two decades—up 35%, surpassing the initial jump seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overnight, Qatar cautioned that Gulf producers may be forced to halt output within days, while the U.S. administration is exploring steps to ease price pressures. In that vein, the U.S. Treasury granted India a temporary license to increase purchases of Russian oil. While geopolitics remain the dominant driver of volatility, today’s U.S. data added to the risk‑off tone. Payrolls unexpectedly declined, and retail sales fell, largely due to severe winter weather. In markets, energy and defensive sectors outperformed. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a safe haven, reaching a three‑month high against the euro. Government bonds, however, remained under pressure this week as the surge in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher.
Weak U.S. jobs data add to investor caution - The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, partly reversing January’s surprise payroll gain. Unemployment remains relatively low, but job losses were broad, with declines across both the private and government sectors. The weak report challenges the recent stabilization narrative and places the Fed in a difficult position, particularly as the rise in oil prices adds near‑term inflation pressure. As with any single monthly datapoint, we should avoid overextrapolating the trend—severe weather and labor disruptions may have weighed on hiring. Still, with global geopolitical uncertainty elevated, we think it is reasonable to expect that job growth may remain subdued in the months ahead. We continue to believe the Fed will be inclined to cut rates later this year, likely one or two times.
Gauging the impact of the Middle East conflict - The economic consequences of the conflict will likely hinge on its duration and the extent of disruption to energy supplies—both difficult to forecast. Regionally, Asia and Europe are particularly exposed given their reliance on imported oil that moves through Middle Eastern shipping lanes. With no immediate signs of resolution, WTI crude is now at its highest level since late 2023, adding to inflation pressures that could weigh on consumer spending. Even so, history shows that geopolitical shocks typically have short‑lived market effects. Oil prices often rise in anticipation of major events and peak shortly afterward. For instance, WTI peaked just 10 days after the Israel–Iran conflict in the summer of 2025 and roughly three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.* Canada is a significant net exporter of oil, and rising global energy prices often benefit Canadian producers, government revenues, and the broader resource sector. While consumers face higher fuel costs, the overall macroeconomic impact is more balanced than in countries reliant on imported oil. South of the border, the U.S. has been a net exporter of oil since 2019, and the economy is far less energy‑intensive than in prior decades. Since 1950, the energy required to produce one unit of U.S. GDP has fallen by roughly 70%, driven by efficiency gains and the growth of the services sector.* We therefore caution against making reactionary portfolio changes in response to headline‑driven global events, as such moves often come at the expense of long‑term returns*.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: Bloomberg.}
^{Sources for data cited: *Bloomberg, Edward Jones}

Thursday, 3/5/2026 p.m.

Markets close lower, pressured by climbing oil prices – The TSX and U.S. equity markets finished lower on Thursday, with the pullback led by weakness in consumer staples and materials — sectors that are sensitive to input costs. In international markets, Asia rebounded overnight, while Europe was down. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, as investors likely seek the stability of the world's reserve currency. Energy markets remain a central focus for investors, as WTI oil briefly topped $80 per barrel for the first time since 2024. Disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supply.

Despite near-term volatility, we continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes. Within equities, we favour U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, which we believe stand to benefit from their quality and broadening leadership. We also see potential in overseas developed small- and mid-cap and emerging-market equities, supported by resilient global economic growth and relatively attractive valuations. Within fixed income, we think international bonds can add diversification through exposure to different economic and interest-rate cycles, while emerging-market debt may also enhance income.
Jobless claims unchanged – U.S. initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000 this past week, slightly below the 215,000 expected. Continuing claims — reflecting the total number of people receiving benefits — rose modestly to 1.87 million, suggesting some workers are taking longer to find new employment. Tomorrow's jobs report will offer a deeper look at the labour market, with forecasts calling for a gain of 60,000 jobs for February, enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. We think these trends remain consistent with a stabilizing labour market. Slower job creation alongside a moderate pace of layoffs should help keep wage gains above inflation, in our view, helping provide disposable income to support consumer spending and the economy.
Bond yields edge higher – Bond yields rose for the fourth straight day, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.33% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.13%. The move primarily reflects expectations that higher inflation — partially influenced by rising oil prices — could delay Fed rate cuts. Markets have pushed expectations for the next rate cut out to September of this year and the second cut to 2027*, aligning with the Fed's latest projections**. In addition, inflation expectations — a key component of bond yields — have risen. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets have climbed about 5 basis points (0.05%) since late last week to roughly 2.3%***. We think the Fed remains positioned to continue cutting rates, though the path may be slower. In our view, the steady labour backdrop should allow policymakers more time to confirm that the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation — currently 2.9% — is easing sustainably toward the 2% target before proceeding with additional cuts. The Bank of Canada appears to be on hold as well, with the policy rate at the low end of the central bank's own 2.25% - 3.25% estimate for neutral rates****.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Sources for data cited: *CME FedWatch **U.S. Federal Reserve ***Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ****Bank of Canada}

Wednesday, 3/4/2026 p.m.

Stocks gain on healthy U.S. economic data – North American equity markets closed higher on Wednesday, supported by better‑than‑expected readings from both the ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI. On the employment front, U.S. private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, above expectations for a gain of roughly 50,000 and pointing to stabilization in U.S. labour‑market conditions. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February—well above consensus expectations and the highest reading since July 2022. From a leadership standpoint, most sectors within the S&P 500 finished higher, with growth‑oriented sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary outperforming. Overseas, markets in Asia closed sharply lower overnight, while European markets partially recovered losses from earlier in the week and ended higher. Bond yields rose following the strong U.S. economic data, with the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.09% and the 10‑year GoC yield reaching 3.26%. In commodity markets, oil prices continued to trend higher amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, with WTI crude closing just above $75 per barrel.
Oil price spike weighs on overseas stocks – The conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, with WTI crude rising above $70 per barrel for the first time since last summer. Canadian and U.S. equities are modestly lower this week; however, overseas markets have experienced a sharper pullback. The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen more than 4% this week, while Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 8%. In emerging markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has declined about 5% this week, and Korea’s KOSPI has fallen 18%. A higher reliance on imported energy in these regions is likely contributing to the more pronounced weakness abroad. According to the World Bank, the euro area imports roughly 68% of its energy consumption, while Japan and Korea import more than 80%; by contrast, Canada and the United States are net exporters of oil*. In our view, the recent pullback in overseas stocks could present an attractive entry point for long‑term investors. Historically, oil price spikes tied to geopolitical conflict have tended to be short‑lived, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects global petroleum production to outpace consumption over the next two years, which could limit a sustained rise in prices.** We believe opportunities are particularly compelling in overseas developed small‑ and mid‑cap equities and in emerging‑market equities.
U.S. private payrolls expanded in February – The February ADP report showed that U.S. private employment rose by 63,000—exceeding expectations for a 50,000 gain and marking the strongest monthly increase since last July. Job growth was broad-based, with gains across goods‑producing industries and service sectors, led by strength in education and health services, Additionally, small businesses—those with 1–19 employees—accounted for the lion’s share of job growth, with payrolls rising by 58,000, the strongest increase since January 2024. In our view, today’s report points to continued stabilization in labour‑market conditions, which should help support economic growth over the course of the year. U.S. labour‑market data remain in focus this week, with February nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due Friday. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% and for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Sources for data cited: *World Bank, Energy imports, net (% of energy use) **U.S. Energy Information Administration}

Tuesday, 3/3/2026 p.m.

Markets close lower as investors monitor oil prices – The TSX and U.S. equity markets finished lower on Tuesday after rebounding from a steeper intraday pullback. Asian and European markets also ended down. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, as investors likely seek the stability of the world's reserve currency. We continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes, including in areas like cyclical and value sectors, which can hold up better when energy prices rise; U.S. mid-cap stocks, which have more domestic exposure; and emerging markets and parts of international equities, which have exposure to global technology opportunities.
Oil prices rise further on disruptions – WTI oil prices are up roughly 10% from late last week on supply concerns tied to disruptions to oil production and transportation. Production of both oil and natural gas is being affected by attacks on energy infrastructure, while oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) tankers are being delayed or rerouted amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. President Trump announced measures to provide risk insurance to ships traveling through the region, including oil tankers. In addition, the U.S. Navy will escort ships if necessary. While oil prices could rise further in the near term, similar geopolitical shocks have not produced sustained oil price surges in recent years*.
Bond yields edge higher – Bond yields rose for the second straight day, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.24% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.06%. The move appears to be driven primarily by higher inflation expectations — one component of bond yields — likely reflecting rising oil prices. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets have increased about 10 basis points (0.10%) since late last week to about 2.3%. Bond markets also reflect that higher inflation could delay Fed rate cuts. Markets are pricing in expectations for two cuts to the Fed's policy rate later this year to the 3.0% - 3.25% range, followed by one additional cut next year**. This remains a faster pace than the Fed's own projection for one cut this year and another next year***. The Bank of Canada appears to be on hold in the near term as well, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. Sources for data cited: *U.S. Energy Information Administration **CME FedWatch ***U.S. Federal Reserve}

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The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

The IPC meets regularly to talk about the markets, the economy and the current environment, propose new policies and review existing guidance — all with your financial needs at the center.

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