Daily market snapshot

Brock Weimer

Monday, 1/12/2026 p.m.

Stocks close higher, shaking off central-bank independence concerns – North American stocks closed higher despite reports that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation related to testimony he gave last summer concerning the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project.* Chair Powell released a video yesterday stating that the Fed has made every effort to keep Congress fully informed about the renovation and that he views the investigation as an attempt by the administration to influence monetary policy.

Under the Federal Reserve Act, the president may remove members of the Board of Governors only “for cause,” a term that is not explicitly defined in statute but has historically been interpreted by courts to mean neglect of duty or malfeasance (i.e., wrongdoing or misconduct by a public official).** While an investigation has been opened, Chair Powell has not been formally charged. Moreover, any effort to remove him would likely face significant legal challenges, a process that would take time. In our view, a conviction may be required to establish “cause,” as it would demonstrate that the facts of the case were adjudicated by a court and that Powell was afforded due process under the U.S. Constitution.

From a market perspective, U.S. stocks brushed off these concerns, with the S&P 500 logging a modest gain, supported by strength in the industrials and consumer staples sectors.* Canadian equities finished higher as well, with the TSX posting a 0.8% gain.* In contrast, the U.S. dollar fell while U.S. Treasury yields rose.* Other traditional safe-haven assets such as gold finished higher, with geopolitical uncertainty in Iran likely contributing to the rise as well.* The central concern for markets from these developments is that this episode signals a potential erosion of the Federal Reserve’s ability to conduct monetary policy independent of political influence. With Chair Powell’s term set to expire in May, and a more dovish successor potentially taking his place, we expect this issue to remain a market-relevant headline in the coming months. That said, the Federal Reserve’s institutional design—including a 12-member voting committee for monetary-policy decisions and 14-year staggered terms for Board members—is explicitly intended to insulate monetary policy from political pressure. We expect these structural safeguards to limit the extent of any erosion in the Fed’s independence.
Central-bank independence in focus to start the week – News of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over central-bank independence. While U.S. equities posted a modest gain, the dollar was weaker, and Treasury yields traded higher.* The primary market concern is that this development could signal a weakening of the Federal Reserve’s ability to conduct monetary policy independent of political influence. Chair Powell’s term as Fed chair is set to expire in May, and he could be replaced by a more dovish successor who may be more inclined to lower interest rates. However, the Fed chair does not unilaterally set monetary policy. Decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of 12 voting members, with each vote carrying equal weight. Importantly, several FOMC participants have recently emphasized the importance of central-bank independence*. As a result, we do not expect a change in Fed leadership to materially erode the Federal Reserve’s ability to set monetary policy independently. From a portfolio perspective, we continue to believe that opportunities are attractive in global equity markets, and we recommend that investors take a globally diversified approach to overweighting stocks versus bonds. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.
U.S. inflation on the horizon – Inflation data will be in focus tomorrow with the release of the December U.S. consumer price index (CPI). Consensus expectations call for headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on the month and 2.7% on a year‑over‑year basis.* Following a lower‑than‑expected November reading—which was clouded due to limitations in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) ability to collect data during the government shutdown—investors will likely be watching closely to see whether the recent disinflationary momentum can be sustained now that the BLS has resumed normal operations. In recent months, goods prices have risen from relatively low levels, likely reflecting tariff‑related cost pass‑through.* By contrast, services inflation has shown encouraging signs of gradual moderation.* We expect cooling labour‑market conditions to contribute to further easing in services inflation over the course of 2026. Taken together, we believe U.S. inflation is likely to hover in a 2.5%–3.0% range in 2026.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **U.S. Federal Reserve}

Friday, 1/9/2026 p.m.

A strong start to 2026 – Equity markets delivered strong gains on Friday, capping off a robust first full week of the new year*. The S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher, leaving the index up 1.8% over 2026 so far, while the Canadian S&P/TSX index is now up 2.8% year-to-date*. Shorter-dated U.S. government bonds sold off at the end of the week as December's payrolls report showed few signs of labor-market distress, pushing investors to hedge bets on Fed easing at upcoming meetings*. However, longer-duration bonds rallied, helped by President Trump's directive to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds*. In Canada, bond markets were generally firmer, with a rise in reported unemployment in December pushing back on building expectations that the Bank of Canada might hike rates this year*. The U.S. dollar moved higher against a basket of trade-weighted currencies, including the Canadian dollar, and is now up 0.8% year-to-date on this trade-weighted basis*. WTI oil prices jumped 2% as investors contemplate the latest geopolitical headlines out of Iran, and gold prices nudged above $4,500 per ounce*.
Mixed signals from December labour reports – Headline nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by a disappointing 50,000 in December, while gains over the previous two months were revised lower by a cumulative 76,000*. Sluggish hiring continues a trend seen throughout 2025, with payrolls rising just 584,000 over the year, down from the 2 million increase reported in 2024**. Cuts to federal government employees of 277,000 in 2025 explain some, but not all, of this slowdown**. Despite sluggish hiring, the unemployment rate declined in December to 4.4%, providing a more reassuring signal**. Signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate over recent months indicate that we are not seeing a significant deterioration in the labour market, in our view, even if hiring remains stuck in the slow lane. In Canada, there were similarly mixed signals in December*. Encouragingly, we saw a fourth consecutive increase in employment, hinting at signs of labour-market resilience amid trade-policy uncertainty*. However, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 6.8%, even if this remains well below the recent peak*.
Time for a pause? – The Fed has cut interest rates at its each of its past three meetings but indicated that it might be ready to take a pause from this policy easing in January***. Today's labour data seem unlikely to change that assessment, in our view. Moreover, adding to the case for a pause is the unexpectedly strong third-quarter GDP report released late last year, and building expectations for fourth-quarter GDP based on tracking estimates****. However, while the Fed looks set to take a breather in January, we expect it to resume cuts at upcoming meetings. Most FOMC members think interest rates at their current level (3.5%-3.75%) are weighing on economic activity, and they support modest further reductions to ease this drag***. We expect one to two 25 basis point (0.25%) cuts this year, leaving interest rates in the 3%-3.5% range. In Canada, interest rates are seen unchanged at 2.25% through the rest of 2026, with the Bank of Canada seemingly confident that policy is well-positioned to support a recovery in the economy following a slowdown in growth over 2025*.

James McCann
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg, **BLS, ***Federal Reserve, ****Atlanta Fed}

Markets rise higher on strong productivity growth – The TSX and U.S. equity markets finished higher on Thursday, as a broad range of sectors – led by energy and consumer staples – offset a pullback in technology stocks*. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.40% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.18%*. Internationally, Asia finished lower amid rising geopolitical tensions*. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies*. In commodities, WTI oil rebounded after its pullback in recent days*.
Jobless claims rise modestly – S. initial jobless claims increased to 208,000 this past week — in line with expectations — from 200,000 the prior week*. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, edged higher to 1.91 million, slightly above forecasts for a smaller rise to 1.87 million*. The unemployment rate has risen in recent months to 4.6%, and job openings contracted in November to 7.1 million, slightly below unemployment of 7.8 million*. Tomorrow's employment report for December will help provide a deeper look at the labour market, with forecasts calling for 55,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.5%*. We expect the current low-hiring, low-firing environment to persist, supporting gradual inflation moderation — though likely at a slower pace.
Strong productivity gains drive unit labor costs lower –S. nonfarm business sector productivity rose 4.9% annualized for the third quarter of 2025, ahead of estimates of 4.6% and marking the strongest reading in two years*. Hourly compensation grew 2.9% year-over-year – slightly above CPI inflation of about 2.7%* – resulting in continued positive real wage gains, on average. Growing disposable income should help support consumer spending and the broader economy, in our view. Unit labour costs, which reflect wage gains adjusted for changes in productivity, fell 1.9% annualized, below expectations for a 0.2% gain*. Lower unit labour costs should help ease inflation pressures, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}

Stocks end mixed after fresh highs – Markets diverged today, as the Nasdaq advanced while the TSX and Dow slipped after touching record highs, amid ongoing geopolitical headlines and ahead of key U.S. labour data*. Bonds rallied, sending yields lower, following weaker-than-expected German retail sales, moderating eurozone inflation, and a decline in total U.S. job openings*. Oil prices fell after President Trump indicated Venezuela will ship 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S., as Washington seeks greater control over the country’s industry*. Also making headlines, Trump threatened to pause capital returns for defense contractors and proposed a ban on single-home purchases by institutional investors, pressuring shares of defense companies and some asset managers. On the corporate front, Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount’s latest bid, calling it inferior to its existing deal with Netflix. Meanwhile, precious metals paused after a strong 2025 and a solid start to the year, with both gold and silver declining today*.
Small-caps and value lead early-year gains - Just a few days into the new year, markets are already digesting major geopolitical headlines while bracing for a wave of economic data ahead. Despite the headline volatility, equities have largely shrugged off the news, with major indexes hitting fresh highs yesterday*. While recent developments carry significant geopolitical implications, they do not materially alter the near-term outlook for the economy or oil supply, in our view, the factors markets truly care about. Meanwhile, a pro-cyclical rally is underway, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-caps and value-style investments outpacing growth*. We believe this reflects supportive fundamentals, including an expected broadening of earnings momentum both within and beyond U.S. mega-cap tech.
Labour-market data in focus – U.S. private payrolls, as reported by ADP this morning, rose by 41,000 in December, roughly in line with consensus expectations*. This moderate pace suggests a labour market that may be stabilizing after a soft patch over the past six months. Most job gains came from familiar sectors such as education and health services*. Encouragingly, for the first time in four months, firms with fewer than 50 employees added jobs*. This data precedes Friday’s December employment report, which will likely be closely watched for its implications on Fed policy. Last month’s report showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, a four-year high, but largely for constructive reasons as more workers re-entered the labor force*. We believe the current low-hiring, low-firing environment will persist. However, with economic activity remaining solid, hiring could pick up slightly. We expect monthly U.S. job gains to firm modestly into the 50,000–100,000 range, while a smaller labour supply—partly due to lower immigration—keeps unemployment near 4.5% in 2026. In Canada, we think we may be past the peak in unemployment, as we expect private hiring to pick up, (hopefully) helped by an easing in trade-policy uncertainty and an accompanied improvement in Canadian growth.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg}

Stocks close higher – North American equity markets finished higher on Tuesday with the S&P 500 and TSX each gaining 0.6%.* Leadership was broad-based, with cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 such as materials and industrials outperforming alongside the defensive health care sector.* Additionally, economic-growth-sensitive U.S. small-cap stocks saw strong returns as well, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining more than 1%.* Overseas, Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, while European markets traded higher as well.* Bond yields closed modestly higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finishing at 4.17% while the 10-year GoC yield closed at 3.44%.* In commodity markets, oil finished lower, reversing gains at the open, while precious metals such as gold and silver each finished the day higher as investors continue to digest recent geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Venezuela.*
Labour-market data in focus – Investors will have a wave of key labour-market data to digest this week, beginning tomorrow with the release of the December ADP U.S. employment report and the November JOLTS job openings data. Friday will bring the U.S. unemployment rate and nonfarm-payrolls report for December, with expectations calling for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.5% and nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000.* Friday will also provide a read on trends in the domestic labour market, with the December labour-force survey expected to show a 5,000 contraction in employment while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.7%.* 2025 was a year of cooling labour-market conditions, with U.S. nonfarm-payroll growth averaging about 55,000 over the first 11 months, down from an average of 168,000 in 2024.* In Canada, despite strong employment growth in the last three months, employment growth has averaged a modest 20,000 per month in 2025, down from 49,000 in 2024.* However, despite slowing job growth, there have been limited signs of layoffs.* The unemployment rates in the U.S. and Canada remain contained from a historical perspective and U.S. weekly initial jobless claims averaged just 226,000 in 2025—well below the 30-year average of 364,000.* While labour-market conditions have cooled in the U.S. and Canada, we expect conditions to stabilize in 2026, perhaps supporting steady economic growth.
U.S. stocks in rare territory after third year of over 10% gains – The S&P 500 gained 16.4% in price terms in 2025, marking the third consecutive year in which the index has returned more than 10%.** Since 1950, there have been only four other periods—1950–1952, 1995–1999, 2012–2014, and 2019–2021—during which the index posted double‑digit gains for three consecutive years.** Historically, returns in the fourth year have been modest, with the S&P 500 delivering an average gain of just 1.5%.** Despite the fourth year following three consecutive years of strong gains having historically produced lackluster returns, we see reasons for optimism in 2026. Notably, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by nearly 15%*, which, if realized, could help support solid equity performance even if valuations remain unchanged. We expect steady U.S. economic growth in 2026, underpinned by easing monetary policy and modestly stimulative fiscal policy, factors that we think should also help pave the way for continued corporate profit growth. We would, however, emphasize that diversification across regions and sectors will likely be key to investor success in 2026, particularly with the S&P 500 heavily concentrated within the 10 largest companies. Against this backdrop, we recommend investors take a globally diversified approach to overweighting equities relative to bonds. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **Morningstar Direct, Edward Jones.}

The U.S. captures Venezuelan leaders: What are the implications – Over the weekend, the U.S. military executed a mission to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York and charged with narco-terrorism conspiracy and other crimes. Perhaps most notably, the U.S. administration has indicated that the U.S. would now run Venezuela until a safe and judicious transition of power takes place. In addition, the U.S. is planning to rebuild the oil infrastructure in Venezuela, with support from major U.S. energy companies.

What are the implications of these actions? From a macroeconomic perspective, we know Venezuela is a relatively small player. Its economy is less than 1% of global GDP, and it represents less than 1% of U.S. and global trade. The country does have about 17% of global oil reserves, but due to failing infrastructure, they deliver just about 1% of global production. Thus, assuming these tensions remain contained, there is likely limited systemic risk to the broader global economy.

However, perhaps the broader implication to monitor is the precedent this action may set globally, especially given that the U.S. plans to retain power in Venezuela until a transition of government occurs. It is early days still, but this will be a longer tail risk to watch, particularly as economies like China and Russia strategize their own next steps.
Market reactions to the Venezuelan actions were muted – As expected, the market reactions to the geopolitical actions in Venezuela were largely contained. Stock markets in the U.S. closed solidly higher, with the Dow Jones leading the S&P 500 and Canadian TSX. There was also a rise in safe-haven assets, with U.S. Treasury bonds and gold higher on Monday as well. On the commodity front, we are seeing some upward pressure on oil prices, with WTI crude oil up about 1.8% to around $58.30. However, keep in mind that oil prices started near multi-year lows as oil markets globally continue to face oversupply. Notably, large U.S. oil companies did rise as well, with companies like Chevron, Marathon, and Valero Energy all up 5% - 10% on Monday.
U.S. economic and labor market data in focus this week as well – This week also brings a full slate of economic releases that will offer an updated read on both overall activity and labor‑market conditions. Key reports include U.S. ADP private payrolls, ISM Services, JOLTS job openings, and factory orders on Wednesday; initial jobless claims and productivity/unit labor costs on Thursday; and the December jobs report for the U.S. and Canada on Friday*. Recent jobs data has shown mixed signals, with U.S. unemployment rising to 4.6%, a four‑year high, but largely for the "right" reasons as more workers re‑entered the labor force*. Friday's report is expected to indicate about 60,000 jobs added, in-line with recent trends of sub-100,000 job growth, and the unemployment rate to tick lower, from 4.6% to 4.5%. Overall, we continue to see a U.S. labor market characterized by a continued low‑hiring, low‑firing environment. We expect monthly job gains to firm modestly into the 50,000–100,000 range, while a smaller labor supply—partly reflecting lower immigration—keeps unemployment near 4.5% in 2026.

Mona Mahajan;
Investment Strategy

^{Sources: *Bloomberg}

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The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

The IPC meets regularly to talk about the markets, the economy and the current environment, propose new policies and review existing guidance — all with your financial needs at the center.

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