• Markets close higher as U.S.-Iran ceasefire extended – The TSX and U.S. equity markets advanced on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new closing highs, as investors appear increasingly willing to look through geopolitical uncertainty and refocus on growth and earnings. Technology and communications led gains, reinforcing the market's risk-on tone. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield up to 3.49% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down near 4.30%. Internationally, Asian markets finished mixed overnight as Japan's Nikkei index reached a record high, closing in on 60,000. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major international currencies.
   
• U.S.-Iran ceasefire extended – U.S. President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, reducing near-term geopolitical risk and allowing more time for diplomacy. Despite this development, energy markets reflect continued stress. WTI oil prices moved higher as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and the U.S. blockade on ships from Iranian ports continues. Importantly, energy futures markets are reflecting expectations for the disruptions to be short-lived, pointing to crude prices moving back toward the mid-$70s by year-end. If realized, falling oil prices should help ease headline inflation and help reduce pressure on energy-intensive sectors, in our view.
   
• Earnings season check-in – Tesla, the first of the "Magnificent 7" to report this cycle, is set to release results after the closing bell today. Consensus estimates point to earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 — a 30% year-over-year increase — on about $22 billion of revenue. More broadly, the early read on first-quarter earnings is encouraging: With 17% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 84% have beaten EPS estimates by an average upside surprise of 13%. Forecasted EPS growth for the quarter has been revised up to over 12%, which, if achieved, would mark the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Technology is expected to lead by a wide margin, with earnings gains of more than 40% year-over-year, followed by materials and financials. Importantly, the breadth of growth is expected to be strong, as eight of the 11 sectors are projected to post year-over-year EPS gains. We believe wide earnings growth should help support more balanced market performance across sectors and help strengthen the case for portfolio diversification.

Brian Therien, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Stocks edge lower on geopolitical uncertainty – North American equity markets closed lower on Tuesday as renewed geopolitical uncertainty outweighed a better-than-expected U.S. retail-sales report. After opening in positive territory, stocks reversed course and finished the day lower following reports that U.S.-Iran negotiations had been paused, with the two-week ceasefire set to expire tomorrow evening. Overseas, Asian markets moved higher overnight, while European markets ended lower in response to the pause in talks between the U.S. and Iran. In addition, the eurozone’s ZEW economic expectations survey fell to its lowest level since 2022, reflecting growing concern about the economic consequences from the war in Iran in Europe. Government bond yields rose, with the 10-year GoC yield climbing to 3.48% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.31%. In commodity markets, oil prices also moved higher, with WTI crude settling at around $91 per barrel.
   
• Consumer check-in – U.S. retail-sales data for March showed that consumer spending remained resilient despite rising oil prices. Headline retail sales rose 1.7% in March, up from 0.7% in February and above expectations for a 1.6% gain. The increase in headline sales was driven in part by a 15.5% surge in spending at gasoline stations amid the spike in oil prices following the war in Iran. However, looking beyond gasoline spending suggests that consumption was strong more broadly. Control-group retail sales — which exclude spending at gas stations, motor vehicle and parts dealers, building materials and garden equipment, and food services — rose a solid 0.7%, above expectations for a 0.2% gain. Additionally, the preliminary ADP employment report showed that U.S. private employers added roughly 55,000 jobs in the four weeks ending April 4, marking the fifth consecutive week of acceleration and pointing to stability in the U.S. labour market. In our view, stabilizing labour-market conditions and steady household spending should continue to support U.S. economic activity over the balance of the year.
   
• All eyes on the next Fed chair – Investors heard from Kevin Warsh on Tuesday morning, President Trump’s nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, as he delivered remarks before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh was nominated in late January to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs through May 15. Confirmation appears likely, though the timing remains uncertain after Senator Thom Tillis said he would not vote to confirm any Fed nominees until the investigation into Powell over Fed renovation costs is concluded. Powell has previously said he will remain chair until his successor is confirmed. From a policy perspective, Warsh has argued that interest rates should be lower and has been a vocal critic of the Fed’s balance sheet. While the Fed chair is a highly visible role, the Fed’s structure limits any one member’s influence. Specifically, the Federal Open Market Committee, which votes on monetary policy, gives equal votes to all 12 voting members, and dissents have been common in recent meetings. The bottom line, in our view, is that Warsh likely represents a dovish shift in the Fed chair role on interest rates, but the overall impact should be limited. We continue to believe the Fed’s easing cycle remains intact, with the Fed likely to deliver one or two additional rate cuts this cycle.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Stocks tick lower with geopolitical tensions back in focus – North American equity markets closed modestly lower on Monday as investors digested weekend news that Iran has again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ships. The market reaction was contained, with the TSX and S&P 500 only modestly lower, which, in our view, likely reflects investor expectations that the broader trajectory of the conflict remains one of de-escalation. Further supporting this view, the Russell 2000 small-cap index traded higher on the day. Overseas, equity markets in Asia closed higher overnight, while European markets traded lower. On the economic front, domestic headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, up from 1.8% in February, with the increase largely driven by higher gasoline prices. However, core measures of inflation remained contained. Government bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year GoC yield closing around 3.44% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.26%. In commodity markets, oil prices were up roughly 5% following the weekend developments, rising to around $87 per barrel.
   
• Geopolitical tensions back in focus – Geopolitical tensions returned to the forefront over the weekend following reports that Iran had again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ships entering and leaving port. Despite the escalation, market reaction has been orderly, with North American equity markets modestly lower and oil prices higher, though still below $90 per barrel. Additionally, equity markets in Asia—regions that are especially sensitive to higher oil prices—closed higher overnight. In our view, this suggests that markets continue to believe the most likely path forward is de-escalation, particularly as the U.S. sends officials to the Middle East for another round of negotiations this week. In our view, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines surrounding the conflict in the days and weeks ahead. Even so, we believe strong corporate earnings growth and healthy economic activity should create attractive opportunities in equity markets over the balance of the year. As part of our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we recommend that investors take a global approach to overweighting equities relative to bonds. Specifically, we see attractive opportunities in U.S. stocks, as well as overseas developed small- and mid-cap equities and emerging-market equities.
   
• Headline inflation jumps in March; but core pressures remain contained – Domestic headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, up from 1.8% in February. The primary driver of the increase in headline prices was gasoline, with prices rising 21.2% during the month due to the conflict in the Middle East. However, CPI excluding gasoline increased at a 2.2% annual pace in March, down from 2.4% in February. A closer look at the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of inflation suggests that core price pressures remain contained. CPI-trim rose 2.2% year-over-year, while CPI-median was unchanged from February at 2.3%. In addition, the average of the three-month annualized changes in these two measures puts core inflation at roughly 1.6%, pointing to limited inflationary pressure in recent months. With inflation within the Bank of Canada’s target range and signs of slack in the domestic economy, we expect the central bank to remain on hold at next week’s meeting.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Markets finish the week higher as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open – The TSX and U.S. equity markets closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new record highs as Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping during the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Consumer discretionary and industrials led the advance, as fuel-intensive sectors rebounded sharply. Bond yields moved lower, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.45% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.24%. Internationally, Asian markets finished lower overnight, while Europe traded higher. The U.S. dollar softened against major international currencies, consistent with a modest unwinding of safe-haven demand for the world's reserve currency amid today's risk-on tone.
   
• Oil prices pull back - In energy markets, WTI oil prices fell roughly 9% as some of the geopolitical risk premium was removed with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally handles about 20% of global oil and gas flows. While U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports remain in place, oil futures markets also retreated, now implying crude prices could move back toward the low-$70s by year-end. If realized, falling oil prices should help ease headline inflation and help reduce pressure on energy-intensive sectors.
   
• Earnings season off to a solid start – Earnings season kicked off this week on a positive note, with the six largest U.S. banks delivering better-than-expected earnings per share (EPS). More broadly, the first-quarter S&P 500 earnings outlook has improved. EPS growth has been revised up to roughly 12%, which, if achieved, would mark the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Technology is again expected to lead by a wide margin, with earnings gains of more than 40% year-over-year, followed by materials and financials. Importantly, the breadth of growth is expected to be strong, as eight of the 11 sectors are projected to post year-over-year EPS gains. We believe wide earnings growth should help support more balanced market performance across sectors and help strengthen the case for portfolio diversification.

Brian Therien, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Stocks finished mixed — North American equity markets were mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each closing at record highs while the TSX was modestly lower. Overseas, Asian markets advanced overnight after China reported better-than-expected first-quarter GDP, while European equities finished mixed. On the corporate front, Taiwan Semiconductor, the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, reported sales and earnings above expectations, citing strong AI-related demand as a key driver. Despite solid results, shares closed lower, perhaps highlighting elevated expectations. On the economic front, U.S. initial jobless claims declined to 207,000 last week, while industrial production fell 0.5% in March. Despite the monthly contraction, U.S. industrial production rose at a solid 2.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. Government bond yields were slightly higher on Thursday, with the 10-year GoC yield closing at 3.5% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.31%. In commodity markets, oil prices were modestly higher, with WTI crude settling around $90 per barrel.
   
• Back at all-time highs—where to next? – The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time in history Wednesday, reaching a new all-time high and fully reversing the 9% drawdown triggered by the war in Iran. The index took just 16 days from its March 30 low to reclaim record territory, as equities rebounded on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and optimism surrounding the potential resumption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Looking at similar episodes—specifically in 1986, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2020, 2024, and 2025—when the S&P 500 recovered from a pullback of at least 8% and reached a new all-time high in less than four months, history suggests that stocks have typically continued to trend higher after breaking through to new highs. On average, the S&P 500 returned 5.5% over the six months following a new all-time high in these periods.* While history offers no guarantee of future performance, we believe a healthy economic backdrop and strong earnings trends should support further equity market gains through the remainder of the year.
   
• Low U.S. jobless claims continue to signal a steady labour market – Initial jobless claims declined to 207,000 last week, down from 218,000 in the prior week and below expectations of 217,000. Year-to-date, initial claims have averaged roughly 212,000, well below the 30-year median of more than 300,000. In addition to low layoff levels, the March payrolls report indicated an improvement in job growth, with employers adding 178,000 jobs during the month and the unemployment rate declining to 4.3%. This rebound lifted the three-month average of payroll growth to 68,000, broadly in line with our expectation for payroll gains to average between 50,000 and 100,000 in 2026. In our view, stable hiring trends and low layoffs should persist throughout 2026, continuing to support household spending and broader economic activity.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Source for data cited: *FactSet, Edward Jones. S&P 500 Price Index.}