• Markets rally on U.S.-Iran ceasefire – North American equity markets traded firmly higher on Wednesday following Tuesday’s announcement that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets rallied sharply in response, with the TSX up roughly 1% and the S&P 500 gaining 2.5%. Overseas, Asian equities posted strong overnight gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising more than 5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI Index surged nearly 7%. European equity markets followed suit, closing higher by roughly 5% on Wednesday. Government bond yields moved lower globally as investors reassess expectations for central-bank monetary policy. The 10-year GoC yield declined to around 3.44%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed near 4.29%. Oil prices were sharply lower, with WTI crude down roughly 15% and closing around $96 per barrel. Easing geopolitical tensions also weighed on the dollar, with the greenback down nearly 1% against a basket of developed-market currencies.
   
• U.S.-Iran ceasefire provides boost to global equity markets – The two-week ceasefire announced yesterday evening drove strong gains across global equity markets, while oil prices and global government bond yields declined. We expect markets to remain sensitive to headlines in the coming weeks, particularly as negotiations progress during the ceasefire period. That said, we view yesterday’s announcement as a constructive step toward a more durable resolution, especially if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is able to resume. We continue to see attractive opportunities in global equity markets, and we recommend that investors consider an overweight to equities relative to bonds. Specifically, we believe opportunities are attractive in U.S. stocks, which stand to benefit from sustained AI-related investment and steady economic growth. Overseas, we see attractive opportunities in developed small- and mid-cap equities, where valuations appear compelling, as well as in emerging-market equities, which could benefit from continued enthusiasm around AI.
   
• Decline in oil prices a welcome development for inflation, though normalization will take time — Oil prices are sharply lower on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement, with WTI crude down roughly 15% to around $96 per barrel. While uncertainty remains elevated, we view the ceasefire as a constructive step toward ending the conflict in Iran and restoring crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That said, even if traffic resumes, we expect global oil supply normalization to take time, with prices likely to remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels in the months ahead. Consistent with this view, futures markets currently expect crude oil prices to end the year at around $75 per barrel—little changed from prior to the ceasefire announcement, and well above the sub-$60 levels seen at the start of the year. Persistently elevated oil prices are likely to put upward pressure on headline inflation and may also feed into core inflation as businesses seek to pass through higher energy costs. The key takeaway, however, is that should a durable resolution to the conflict be achieved, we believe central banks will be more inclined to look through any resulting inflationary pressures as a one-off increase. Thus, we expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold in the near term. In the U.S., while rate cuts may be delayed, we continue to expect one to two additional Fed interest-rate cuts over the remainder of this cycle.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

Tuesday, 4/7/2026 p.m.

• Markets edge higher ahead of deadline for U.S.-Iran deal – The TSX and U.S. equity markets closed higher on Tuesday, with communications and energy stocks leading gains. President Trump has set an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline this evening for a deal between the U.S. and Iran, although this timeline could still shift. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield up to 3.48% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down at 4.30%. In international markets, Asia was mixed overnight, while Europe was broadly lower. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies. In energy markets, WTI oil finished lower after briefly reaching $117 per barrel, its highest price since 2022. Despite the recent rise, energy futures continue to imply WTI may retreat toward the mid-$70s by year-end.
   
• Employment report points to firmer job growth – U.S. private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending March 21, marking the third straight weekly improvement and the strongest pace since the weekly ADP series began in September 2025. While the recent rise in energy prices poses downside risks to both the economy and labour market, the pace of hiring remains broadly consistent with our expectation for monthly job growth in the 50,000 to 100,000 range this year. We think this modest pace should be enough to sustain near-full employment, given slower population growth tied to tighter immigration enforcement and an aging workforce. As a result, we expect the labour market to remain characterized by slower hiring but limited layoffs, which should keep the unemployment rate contained near 4.5%.
   
• Durable goods orders fall more than expected – New U.S. orders for manufactured durable goods — those meant to last three years or more — declined 1.4% in February to $315 billion, a weaker-than-expected result and the third consecutive monthly decline. Transportation equipment was the main drag, down 5.4%, with nondefense aircraft orders especially weak*. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, new orders increased 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of estimates, suggesting underlying demand remains firmer than the headline figure implies. We also expect AI infrastructure buildout and business investment incentives in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to help support continued demand.

Brian Therien, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. Source for data cited: *U.S. Census Bureau}

• Markets edge higher to begin the week – North American equity markets closed modestly higher on Monday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. administration indicated that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could begin as early as Tuesday evening if negotiations fail to yield an agreement. Subsequent reports suggest that discussions regarding a potential ceasefire remain ongoing, although the prospects for a durable resolution appear uncertain. On the U.S. economic front, the ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory in March at 54; however, the prices index rose to its highest level since October 2022, potentially signaling upside risks to inflation. Government bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year GoC yield 0.01 percentage points lower to 3.47% while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.34%. Oil prices also edged higher on Monday, with crude settling at approximately $112 per barrel.
   
• U.S. employment data points to resilience – Last Friday’s March jobs report provided further evidence of underlying resilience in the U.S. labour market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, significantly above expectations for a gain of 60,000. Although payroll growth in the prior two months was revised modestly lower by a combined 7,000, the solid March increase brought the three-month average gain in nonfarm payrolls to 68,000, consistent with our expectation entering the year for monthly job growth in the 50,000 to 100,000 range. Job gains in March were broad-based. Goods-producing sectors, including manufacturing and construction, posted solid employment gains, while service-providing industries such as health care saw strong job growth as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. While the current energy shock presents downside risks to both economic activity and labour-market conditions, we believe the March employment report remains consistent with a stable labor market. Although hiring in the U.S. has slowed relative to the immediate post-pandemic period, we think a more moderate pace of job growth is likely sufficient to sustain full employment, given slower U.S. population growth associated with tighter immigration policy. As a result, we expect the U.S. labour market to remain characterized by slower hiring but limited layoffs, with job growth averaging 50,000 to 100,000 per month in 2026 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.5%.
   
• U.S. price check ahead – Friday’s release of the U.S. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide the first indication of how the recent energy shock is affecting consumer prices. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February. The increase in energy prices is likely the primary driver, as WTI crude oil averaged roughly $90 per barrel in March, compared with $64 per barrel in February, pointing to meaningful upside pressure on the energy component of the index. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to firm, with consensus estimates calling for a 2.7% annual increase, up from 2.5% in the prior month. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, we believe these upside inflation risks support a wait-and-see approach to any additional interest-rate cuts. Consistent with that view, futures markets are pricing in the Fed remaining on hold throughout 2026. That said, our base case remains that the Fed’s easing cycle, while potentially delayed, is still intact, with the Fed ultimately delivering one to two additional rate cuts over the course of this cycle.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

Holiday: There will be no Daily Snapshot on Friday, April 3, 2026, in observance of Good Friday.

• Markets reverse losses on hopes of a reopening in the Strait of Hormuz –Bonds and equities shook off a weak start to today's session to close higher, helped by building hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could at least partially reopen. These encouraging signals had little effect on spot oil prices, which remain elevated at $112 per barrel but pushed down expectations for prices later in 2026, according to forward markets. In response the S&P 500 index finished 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 delivered larger gains. U.S. government bond markets were down at market open, but rebounded through the day with yields closing lower. The dollar strengthened against a basket of trade-weighted currencies, and gold prices moved lower.
   
• President Trump strikes a combative tone – Hopes for a de-escalation in the conflict in Iran had built this week after comments from President Trump that the military campaign would be over shortly, and that the U.S. could step back even if it has not secured a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the president's address to the nation last night provided little clarity on what an off-ramp might look like, and, if anything, warned of further escalation in the short term at least. There was a reference to ongoing discussions with Iranian leadership, but little detail, and the president signaled that the U.S. bombing campaign would continue, if not intensify. Market concerns over these headlines were calmed by news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of increased oil flows through this important waterway is an encouraging step, but uncertainty remains high around a path to a fuller reopening.
   
• A health check heading into the energy shock – Tomorrow's nonfarm-payroll report for March will provide a timely check-in on the health of the U.S. labour market in the early innings of the oil shock. The February reading showed a disappointing 90,000 decline in payrolls, although we suspect this was at least partly driven by strike action and seasonal dynamics in early 2026. March should show some rebound, in our view, with the Bloomberg economist consensus penciling in a solid 75,000 rise in payrolls over the month. Other labour-market indicators look consistent with this forecast, with initial unemployment insurance claims low, ADP private sector employment accelerating slightly, and survey data pointing to still solid labour-market dynamics. The risk stands that higher energy costs and rising uncertainty over the outlook could further discourage hiring and push unemployment higher. However, such a deterioration would likely take time to materialize and require a larger and more prolonged oil price spike, in our view.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.}