Tuesday, 4/7/2026 p.m.

• Markets edge higher ahead of deadline for U.S.-Iran deal – The TSX and U.S. equity markets closed higher on Tuesday, with communications and energy stocks leading gains. President Trump has set an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline this evening for a deal between the U.S. and Iran, although this timeline could still shift. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield up to 3.48% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down at 4.30%. In international markets, Asia was mixed overnight, while Europe was broadly lower. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies. In energy markets, WTI oil finished lower after briefly reaching $117 per barrel, its highest price since 2022. Despite the recent rise, energy futures continue to imply WTI may retreat toward the mid-$70s by year-end.
   
• Employment report points to firmer job growth – U.S. private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending March 21, marking the third straight weekly improvement and the strongest pace since the weekly ADP series began in September 2025. While the recent rise in energy prices poses downside risks to both the economy and labour market, the pace of hiring remains broadly consistent with our expectation for monthly job growth in the 50,000 to 100,000 range this year. We think this modest pace should be enough to sustain near-full employment, given slower population growth tied to tighter immigration enforcement and an aging workforce. As a result, we expect the labour market to remain characterized by slower hiring but limited layoffs, which should keep the unemployment rate contained near 4.5%.
   
• Durable goods orders fall more than expected – New U.S. orders for manufactured durable goods — those meant to last three years or more — declined 1.4% in February to $315 billion, a weaker-than-expected result and the third consecutive monthly decline. Transportation equipment was the main drag, down 5.4%, with nondefense aircraft orders especially weak*. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, new orders increased 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of estimates, suggesting underlying demand remains firmer than the headline figure implies. We also expect AI infrastructure buildout and business investment incentives in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to help support continued demand.

Brian Therien, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. Source for data cited: *U.S. Census Bureau}

• Markets edge higher to begin the week – North American equity markets closed modestly higher on Monday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. administration indicated that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could begin as early as Tuesday evening if negotiations fail to yield an agreement. Subsequent reports suggest that discussions regarding a potential ceasefire remain ongoing, although the prospects for a durable resolution appear uncertain. On the U.S. economic front, the ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory in March at 54; however, the prices index rose to its highest level since October 2022, potentially signaling upside risks to inflation. Government bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year GoC yield 0.01 percentage points lower to 3.47% while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.34%. Oil prices also edged higher on Monday, with crude settling at approximately $112 per barrel.
   
• U.S. employment data points to resilience – Last Friday’s March jobs report provided further evidence of underlying resilience in the U.S. labour market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, significantly above expectations for a gain of 60,000. Although payroll growth in the prior two months was revised modestly lower by a combined 7,000, the solid March increase brought the three-month average gain in nonfarm payrolls to 68,000, consistent with our expectation entering the year for monthly job growth in the 50,000 to 100,000 range. Job gains in March were broad-based. Goods-producing sectors, including manufacturing and construction, posted solid employment gains, while service-providing industries such as health care saw strong job growth as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. While the current energy shock presents downside risks to both economic activity and labour-market conditions, we believe the March employment report remains consistent with a stable labor market. Although hiring in the U.S. has slowed relative to the immediate post-pandemic period, we think a more moderate pace of job growth is likely sufficient to sustain full employment, given slower U.S. population growth associated with tighter immigration policy. As a result, we expect the U.S. labour market to remain characterized by slower hiring but limited layoffs, with job growth averaging 50,000 to 100,000 per month in 2026 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.5%.
   
• U.S. price check ahead – Friday’s release of the U.S. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide the first indication of how the recent energy shock is affecting consumer prices. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February. The increase in energy prices is likely the primary driver, as WTI crude oil averaged roughly $90 per barrel in March, compared with $64 per barrel in February, pointing to meaningful upside pressure on the energy component of the index. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to firm, with consensus estimates calling for a 2.7% annual increase, up from 2.5% in the prior month. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, we believe these upside inflation risks support a wait-and-see approach to any additional interest-rate cuts. Consistent with that view, futures markets are pricing in the Fed remaining on hold throughout 2026. That said, our base case remains that the Fed’s easing cycle, while potentially delayed, is still intact, with the Fed ultimately delivering one to two additional rate cuts over the course of this cycle.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

Holiday: There will be no Daily Snapshot on Friday, April 3, 2026, in observance of Good Friday.

• Markets reverse losses on hopes of a reopening in the Strait of Hormuz –Bonds and equities shook off a weak start to today's session to close higher, helped by building hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could at least partially reopen. These encouraging signals had little effect on spot oil prices, which remain elevated at $112 per barrel but pushed down expectations for prices later in 2026, according to forward markets. In response the S&P 500 index finished 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 delivered larger gains. U.S. government bond markets were down at market open, but rebounded through the day with yields closing lower. The dollar strengthened against a basket of trade-weighted currencies, and gold prices moved lower.
   
• President Trump strikes a combative tone – Hopes for a de-escalation in the conflict in Iran had built this week after comments from President Trump that the military campaign would be over shortly, and that the U.S. could step back even if it has not secured a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the president's address to the nation last night provided little clarity on what an off-ramp might look like, and, if anything, warned of further escalation in the short term at least. There was a reference to ongoing discussions with Iranian leadership, but little detail, and the president signaled that the U.S. bombing campaign would continue, if not intensify. Market concerns over these headlines were calmed by news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of increased oil flows through this important waterway is an encouraging step, but uncertainty remains high around a path to a fuller reopening.
   
• A health check heading into the energy shock – Tomorrow's nonfarm-payroll report for March will provide a timely check-in on the health of the U.S. labour market in the early innings of the oil shock. The February reading showed a disappointing 90,000 decline in payrolls, although we suspect this was at least partly driven by strike action and seasonal dynamics in early 2026. March should show some rebound, in our view, with the Bloomberg economist consensus penciling in a solid 75,000 rise in payrolls over the month. Other labour-market indicators look consistent with this forecast, with initial unemployment insurance claims low, ADP private sector employment accelerating slightly, and survey data pointing to still solid labour-market dynamics. The risk stands that higher energy costs and rising uncertainty over the outlook could further discourage hiring and push unemployment higher. However, such a deterioration would likely take time to materialize and require a larger and more prolonged oil price spike, in our view.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.} 

• Stocks add to the rally on optimism that the end of the war is near - Major equity indexes begun the new month and quarter on a higher note, adding to yesterday’s TSX rally, the strongest since April 9, 2025. The move has been supported by U.S. President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war with Iran could be over within two to three weeks, with the U.S. potentially stepping away regardless of whether a deal is reached with the current regime. The U.S. president is scheduled to deliver a national address tonight focused on Iran. While details remain unclear, markets appear to be pricing in a degree of de-escalation. WTI crude oil prices dropped slightly below $100 per barrel, down about 1.8% from yesterday on the news, although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill. Meanwhile, Canada and U.S. government bond yields rose after recent U.S. economic data surprised to the upside.
   
• U.S. economic data highlight solid trends heading into the energy price spike - February U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain and accelerating to the highest pace since July 2025. Control group retail sales, which better capture core consumer spending trends and feed directly into GDP, also increased a strong 0.5%. Together, the data help reinforce the narrative of a resilient consumer heading into the March headwind from sharply higher gasoline prices. On the employment front, U.S. companies added more jobs than expected last month, with private payrolls increasing by 62,000 versus expectations for 40,000, suggesting the labour market may be stabilizing. Most of the private sector hiring was still led by the education and health services sectors, which have been responsible for the majority of job creation in the last year. Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged for the third month at 4.5%, while pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6% from February's 6.3%.
   
• Diversification helped portfolios better weather first-quarter volatility – While the TSX benefited from the resource-heavy tilt, most major U.S. indexes declined in the first quarter, a period marked by headline-driven volatility and shifting market leadership. Early in the quarter, stocks traded within a narrow range before breaking down amid escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy supply shock. The S&P 500 posted a quarterly decline after three consecutive quarters of gains. Notably, however, the equal-weight S&P 500 finished the quarter in positive territory, as did small- and mid-cap stocks. Overseas equities also outperformed in Canada-dollar terms, with emerging-market stocks ending the quarter with a slight gain. Beneath the surface, key themes included continued AI-driven disruption, a rotation away from mega-cap technology stocks, and a reduction in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Energy and materials led the TSX, while technology and real estate sectors lagged. As we turn the page to the second quarter, much of the headline uncertainty remains. That said, we believe relatively steady economic growth and rising earnings can provide support, with diversification continuing to help smooth periods of market volatility.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.}