Daily market snapshot

There will be no Daily Snapshot on Monday, February 16, 2026, in observance of the Presidents Day holiday.

Friday, 2/13/2026 p.m.

• Stocks mixed after inflation report – Canadian stocks finished higher while U.S. equity markets closed near the flatline on Friday following a mostly in-line U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for January, which showed headline CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year while core CPI posted a 2.5% annual gain, the lowest core reading since 2021.* Leadership tilted toward value- and interest-rate sensitive sectors, with utilities and real estate among the top performers of the S&P 500, while growth sectors such as technology and communication services lagged.* The TSX outperformed, gaining over 1%, and was supported by a jump in precious metals prices which benefited the materials sector.* Bond yields closed lower in response to signs of ongoing disinflation in the U.S., with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declining to 4.05%, and the 10-year GoC yield at 3.26%.* Overseas, Asian markets closed lower overnight, while European markets traded modestly lower as well.*
   
• Disinflationary trend remains intact – U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation for January showed continued easing in price pressures, with headline CPI rising 0.2% for the month and 2.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% in January and 2.5% on an annual basis.* The 2.5% annual gain in core CPI marks the lowest reading since 2021.* Core goods prices were flat for the month, driven by a 1.8% decline in used vehicle prices, while goods prices outside the transportation category saw firmer pressures, with core goods excluding used vehicles rising 0.4%, potentially reflecting pass-through effects from tariff-related costs.* On the services side, shelter prices rose a modest 0.2% for the month, while upward pressure in categories such as transportation services contributed to a 0.4% monthly increase in overall services prices.* With inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target and this week’s jobs report indicating signs of stabilization, we believe the Fed will remain on hold in the near term. However, if inflation continues to moderate over the back half of the year, we see scope for the Fed to deliver another one to two interest-rate cuts in the second half of 2026.
   
• Leadership rotation underway to start 2026 – After leading U.S. markets higher for most of the past three years, growth sectors such as technology are among the laggards year-to-date.* Within technology, the software industry has been hit particularly hard, with the S&P 500 software and services industry group down roughly 20% in 2026 amid rising concerns that advances in AI could erode market share for established software companies.* The technology sector of the TSX has lagged as well, down over 25% year-to-date.* While technology has lagged, “old economy” sectors of the S&P 500 such as materials, industrials, energy, and consumer staples have rallied, each gaining more than 12% year-to-date.* Additionally, while the S&P 500 is roughly flat this year, the Russell Mid-cap Index and Russell 2000 (U.S. small-cap) Index are each up over 5%, while the TSX has posted a roughly 4% gain.* Overseas markets have also shown continued strength, with the MSCI EAFE Index (international developed) up more than 8% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up over 11%.* In our view, the long-term growth story behind AI remains intact, and we maintain a favourable outlook for U.S. large-cap stocks. However, we think the recent rotation into overseas equities and value-oriented sectors underscores the importance of diversification. In addition to U.S. large-caps, we see attractive opportunities in U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks, overseas small- and mid-cap equities, and emerging-market stocks.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}

Thursday, 2/12/2026 p.m.

• Stocks slide in broad risk-off move - Equity markets opened on the front foot this morning but sold off sharply over the course of the session, with major U.S. small- and large-cap benchmarks finishing the day 1%-2% lower*. This turnaround followed an upbeat mood in global equity markets overnight, with Asian and European stocks continuing their strong performance over 2026 up to now*. Bond markets rallied sharply amid the risk-off sentiment, with yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down eight basis points (0.08%) to 4.10%, the lowest level seen since early December*. The U.S. dollar was broadly steady against a trade-weighted basket of currencies over the session, while oil and gold prices both fell around 3% as commodities in general struggled*.
   
• Investors continue to look for AI winners and losers – We are increasingly seeing signs of greater discrimination in markets across the potential winners and losers from the AI revolution*. Micron Technology shares were up almost 4% in premarket trading this morning after comments from its CFO provided bullish signals around memory-chip production, with this sector benefiting from strong demand at present*. Meanwhile, concerns over climbing costs for these memory chips sent Cisco Systems shares 7% lower*. This follows price action in recent weeks, which has seen software companies hit by concerns over disruptions to their business models from AI*. These fears are increasingly spreading outside of the technology sector, with real estate weak today as investors questioned the demand for office space amid greater AI take up in the future*. We think this increased discrimination has the potential to generate some ongoing volatility and may encourage a continued rotation into cheaper sectors at home and abroad in which we are seeing signs of improving earnings growth*.
   
• Initial claims remain low, despite today's upside surprise –Today's initial unemployment insurance claims report was higher than expected, with claims remaining around the 230,000 mark following the previous week's spike*. This helped push the four-week moving average of claims up to 220,000, a three-month high*. However, we don't think this increase is especially concerning. Claims remain low from a historic standpoint, indicating muted labor-market distress*. Meanwhile, yesterday's payrolls report pointed to some improvement in private hiring, which was stronger than expected over January, maintaining the upward trend seen through the end of 2025*. Overall, we think the labor market remains resilient for now, which will likely ease the urgency at the Fed to cut interest rates, especially with inflation still elevated. Economists expect tomorrow's CPI report to deliver a firm 0.3% month-over-month increase in both headline and core CPI inflation, although we think it is possible that some of this strength reflects seasonal price resets at the start of the year*. In our view, the Fed seems most likely to stay on hold until inflation starts to cool in the second half of the year.

James McCann;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg}

Wednesday, 2/11/2026 p.m.

• Stocks little changed after stronger-than-expected jobs data - Equity markets initially moved higher following a much better‑than‑expected January U.S. jobs report, but gains faded by the end of the trading day*. Solid hiring and a drop in unemployment reinforced expectations that economic and earnings momentum can continue*. However, bonds were under some pressure as investors priced in a slower trajectory for Fed rate cuts*. Value-style investments extended their year-to-date outperformance, supported by the solid economic growth prospects*. In contrast, growth investments, particularly software stocks, saw renewed selling on AI disruption concerns. Elsewhere, commodity markets were broadly stronger, with silver, gold and oil each up more than 1%*. The TSX materials and energy sectors led the TSX*.
   
• Delayed U.S. January jobs report surprises to the upside - While some investors were bracing for a soft reading, the January payrolls report, delayed due to the government shutdown, surprised meaningfully to the upside, signaling improving hiring momentum. The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs, way more than the 50,000 expected, and the strongest payroll gain in 12 months, with the bulk of it coming from the health care sector, as has been the case over the past year*. Annual revisions removed 862,000 jobs, indicating a sluggish pace of hiring in 2025, but not as weak as feared*. Encouragingly, the rate of unemployment in January ticked down, labour-force participation and hours worked rose, and manufacturing employment increased for the first time since 2024*. We think this release provides ammunition to the Fed hawks to maintain a patient approach to rate cuts, reinforcing the narrative of a stabilizing labour market. Markets have adjusted accordingly, with bond futures now fully pricing in a Fed cut by July instead of June*. From a portfolio standpoint, we expect the 10‑year yield to drift back toward the middle of its 4%–5% range, and we believe the rotation toward “old economy” and pro‑cyclical sectors may continue.
   
• Economy on solid footing - We think the current economic environment is being buoyed by several tailwinds: solid consumer spending from higher‑income households, fiscal support from government spending in Canada and last year’s U.S. tax bill that should lead to larger tax refunds and incentivize business investment, and elevated AI‑related capital spending. Taken together, in our view, these drivers suggest the North American economy remains well‑supported, with the potential for above‑trend growth that can help lift revenues across a broader set of sectors. While tech stocks have recently lost some momentum, “old economy” areas such as chemicals, transportation, industrials, and other real‑asset businesses have stepped up*. In our view, the market’s rotational character is creating diversification opportunities and helping ease valuation concerns. Beyond U.S. large‑caps, where many investors may already have significant exposure, we see attractive opportunities in U.S. mid‑caps, international developed small‑ and mid‑cap equities, and emerging markets. Within the U.S., we continue to favour industrials, consumer discretionary, and health care. Within Canadian equities, we continue to favour industrials, energy and materials.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg} 

Tuesday, 2/10/2026 p.m.

• Stocks mixed following slowdown in U.S. consumer spending – Canadian stocks finished higher on Tuesday while U.S. equity markets were mostly lower as investors digested the U.S. December retail-sales report, which showed retail-sales growth was flat for the month, compared with expectations for a 0.4% increase.* Bonds rallied on the consumer spending report, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.14% and the 10-year GoC yield to 3.36%.* From a leadership perspective, a rally in shares of Shopify supported the technology sector of the TSX, while declining yields supported interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the S&P 500, such as real estate and utilities.* The technology, communication services, and financials sectors of the S&P 500, trailed, with the latter weighed down by brokerage stocks, which were pressured by mounting worries about AI‑related competitive pressures.* Overseas, Asian markets finished higher overnight, while European markets closed mostly lower.*
   
• U.S. consumer spending stalled at the end of 2025 – U.S. headline retail-sales growth was flat in December versus expectations for a monthly gain of 0.4%.* Additionally, control group retail sales (which exclude spending on autos, gas stations, and building materials) fell by 0.1% for the month, compared with expectations for a 0.4% gain.* The slowdown in spending was broad-based, with weakness notable in furniture and home furnishings stores (-0.9%), miscellaneous store retailers (-0.9%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (-0.7%), while spending on building materials was a bright spot (+1.2%).* Despite a lackluster handoff to 2026, we expect steady consumption growth to support healthy economic momentum this year. In our view, larger refund checks stemming from tax legislation passed in 2025 should provide a modest boost to household spending power. Additionally, a cooling but stable labour market and easing monetary policy could offer further support, with our base-case calling for U.S. real GDP growth of roughly 2% in 2026.
   
• Busy week of economic data ahead – U.S. economic data will likely remain in focus for investors over the remainder of the week, with tomorrow bringing the January employment report and Friday the consumer price index (CPI) inflation release.* On the labour‑market front, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 75,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4%.* In 2025, job growth slowed to an average monthly gain of 49,000, down from 168,000 in 2024.* Despite the deceleration in hiring, there have been limited signs of increased layoffs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and initial jobless claims remaining well below their long‑run average.* Turning to inflation, expectations call for both headline and core CPI to rise by 2.5% year‑over‑year, which—if realized—would mark the lowest annual core CPI reading since March 2021.* With inflation continuing to moderate and job growth slowing, we expect the Fed to deliver another one or two interest‑rate cuts in 2026.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}