Stock & Bond Markets Today

Thursday 8/6/2026 a.m.

Stocks open little changed – North American equity markets opened little changed Thursday, with most S&P 500 sectors trading higher early in the session with the exception of technology. Geopolitical developments remain in focus amid reports of progress toward an agreement that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although important details surrounding its implementation remain unclear. On the economic front, U.S. initial jobless claims remained low last week at 199,000, highlighting limited layoff activity, while second-quarter U.S. labour productivity exceeded expectations. In bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly higher to around 4.64% at the open, while the 10-year GoC yield hovered near 3.6%.
U.S. jobless claims remain low, signaling stable labour-market conditions – A busy week of labour-market data continued this morning, with U.S. initial jobless claims totaling 199,000 last week, little changed from the prior week’s revised reading of 198,000. In 2026, weekly jobless claims have averaged roughly 211,000, well below their 30-year average of more than 300,000 and indicative of historically low layoff activity. This morning also brought the Challenger Job-Cut Report for July, which tracks layoffs announced by U.S.-based employers. Announced job cuts fell to 33,429 in July from 45,849 in June and were 46% lower than a year earlier. The July total was also the lowest in two years. While layoffs remain limited, we've also seen decent U.S. hiring trends this year. Yesterday’s ADP employment report showed that U.S. private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, down from a revised 95,000 in June but still representing stable hiring trends, in our view. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing employment index rose to its highest level since August 2022 and moved into expansion territory for the first time in 33 months, perhaps signaling some improvement in manufacturing employment. However, this was partially offset by a decline in the ISM services employment index, which fell into contraction territory in July. Overall, we would characterize U.S. labour-market conditions as healthy, with low levels of layoffs paired with a moderate pace of hiring. We expect stable labour-market conditions to remain supportive of the U.S. economy and consumer spending over the remainder of the year. Labour-market data will remain in focus tomorrow with the release of the domestic labour force survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July.
U.S. labour productivity improves in the second quarter – Strong labour productivity has supported the U.S. economy in recent years. This morning’s preliminary report for the second quarter showed that nonfarm business labor productivity increased at a 1.4% annualized rate, exceeding expectations for a 0.7% gain and above the first-quarter reading of 0.8%. Since 2023, U.S. labour productivity has grown at an annualized rate of roughly 2.5%, well above the approximately 1.2% average recorded from 2010 through 2019. Stronger labour productivity can benefit the economy by allowing output to grow without a commensurate increase in labour costs, thereby helping to ease inflationary pressures. This dynamic is reflected in unit labour costs, which measure the labour compensation required to produce one unit of output. Unit labor costs increased at a 1.3% annualized rate in the second quarter, below expectations for a 2.2% increase. The relatively modest increase may provide some evidence of easing cost pressures and help reduce the urgency for additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, particularly if inflation data over the next several months show a similar trend. With U.S. labour-force growth slowing, we believe sustained productivity gains could play an increasingly important role in supporting U.S. economic growth in the coming years.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Stocks finish mixed with earnings and geopolitics in focus – North American equity markets finished mixed on Wednesday as investors digested another busy day of corporate earnings, including results from Shopify, Advanced Micro Devices and SpaceX’s first quarterly filing as a public company. Geopolitical developments also remain front and centre, with reports suggesting that an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as later today. The TSX outperformed, gaining over 1%, while the S&P 500 declined by 0.2% and the NASDAQ fell by 0.8%. On the economic front, the ADP employment report showed that U.S. private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, the smallest monthly gain in six months but still consistent with stable hiring trends, in our view. In addition, the U.S. ISM Services PMI edged higher to 54.1 in July. Combined with Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.6, the data signal continued momentum across both the goods-producing and services sectors of the U.S. economy. Bond yields finished the day little changed, with the 10-year GoC yield at 3.56% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.61%.
U.S. employment data points to job growth in July – The U.S. ADP employment report showed that private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, below economists’ expectations for a gain of 75,000 but still consistent with stable employment growth, in our view. Looking beneath the headline, employment in goods-producing sectors declined slightly, while the service-providing sector accounted for all of the month’s job gains. The report also showed that median pay for employees who remained in their current jobs rose 4.4% year-over-year, unchanged from June. Meanwhile, pay growth for job changers accelerated to 7%, its fastest pace since August 2025. While stronger wage growth should help support household finances and consumer spending, it could also raise concerns at the Federal Reserve that a sustained period of elevated wage growth may place upward pressure on inflation. In our view, today’s data provide further evidence of stable labour-market conditions, characterized by modest hiring and low levels of layoffs. We think the report also provides a decent handoff to Friday’s nonfarm-payrolls report, with economists expecting U.S. employment to rise by 100,000 and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Friday will also provide a read on domestic labour-market trends, with the labour force survey for July expected to show employment growth of 15,000.
Earnings season remains in focus – Earnings season remains in focus on Wednesday as investors digest results from semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SpaceX’s first quarterly filing as a public company. AMD reported stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings for the second quarter, driven by continued strength in the company’s Data Center segment, which continues to benefit from the buildout of AI-related infrastructure. Despite the better-than-expected results, AMD shares traded lower, likely reflecting elevated expectations heading into the quarter and some profit-taking after the stock gained more than 140% year-to-date through Tuesday, in our view. SpaceX shares are also trading lower after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and a narrower-than-expected second-quarter loss following Tuesday’s market close. However, the company announced second-quarter capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, primarily related to investments in AI compute infrastructure. That figure was well above analysts’ estimates of approximately $13.2 billion for the quarter, and we would view the negative stock-price reaction as reflecting investor caution around increased AI-related spending without tangible returns. In Canada, Shopify reported strong second-quarter results this morning, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. Management also guided to third-quarter revenue growth in the low-30% range, above analysts’ expectations of roughly 26.5%, helping provide support to Shopify shares in early trading and lifting the TSX technology sector. At the index level, second-quarter results have been strong, with S&P 500 earnings per share on pace to grow 45% from a year ago while TSX earnings are expected to grow by 30%. The full-year earnings outlook also remains solid, with estimates calling for S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 30% and TSX earnings growth of 26%. We continue to view the fundamental environment as supportive of equity markets. Strong corporate profit growth, healthy economic activity, and stable labour-market conditions should help provide a favourable backdrop over the coming months, in our view.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Markets close higher as oil prices fall further – Canadian and U.S. equity markets ended sharply higher on Tuesday, with the TSX and S&P 500 reaching record closing highs. Oil prices were down near $76 per barrel following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz could be reached soon. Bond yields also moved lower, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield at 3.55% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.62%. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, while Europe closed higher. The U.S. dollar weakened modestly versus major currencies, consistent with the decline in Treasury yields.
Job openings in line with estimates – U.S. job openings declined to 7.4 million in June, in line with estimates and down from 7.6 million in May. The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs (quits) held steady at 3.2 million, typically indicating confidence in employment prospects. Job openings continue to exceed the 7.1 million unemployed workers. Together, these figures point to a healthy labour market, which should be supportive of consumer spending and the broader economy, in our view. Total nonfarm payrolls will provide a deeper look at the labor market on Friday, with forecasts calling for 100,000 jobs created in July, up from 57,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
Manufacturing activity below expectations – New orders for U.S. manufactured goods dipped for the second consecutive month in June, down 0.3% from May and below forecasts pointing to a 0.2% increase. Orders for durable goods were 0.5% higher month-over-month, ahead of estimates for a 0.3% increase. Unfilled orders rose 0.6% to $1.6 trillion, indicating a large order backlog that could reflect stronger demand than the headline figure implies, in our view. We also expect AI infrastructure buildout to help support continued strong business investment.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Stocks trade higher to start the week – U.S. equities traded higher on Monday, supported by declining oil prices and lower bond yields, while Canadian markets were closed in observance of the Civic Holiday. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump announced that he would hold off on planned attacks against Iran while pursuing a diplomatic solution. The announcement sent WTI crude oil down approximately 5% to around $80 per barrel and pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4.7%. From a leadership standpoint, cyclical and growth-oriented segments of the market outperformed, with consumer discretionary and communication services among the top-performing sectors in the S&P 500. On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since May 2022, signaling continued improvement in the goods-producing side of the U.S. economy. Looking ahead, corporate earnings will remain in focus this week, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Labour market data will also be key, headlined by Friday’s domestic labour force survey and U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
Labour-market data and corporate earnings in focus for the week ahead – Investors face a full week of corporate earnings and labour market data that will help set the tone for the week ahead. June U.S. JOLTS job openings are due tomorrow, followed by the ADP employment report and Friday’s release of July nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. We have seen signs of stabilization in the U.S. labour market, with nonfarm employment growing by an average of 92,000 jobs per month through June, an improvement from average monthly employment growth of roughly 10,000 in 2025. In addition, signs of layoffs remain limited, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and initial jobless claims averaging just 211,000 per week this year. U.S. labour supply and demand also appear fairly balanced, in our view, as evidenced by job openings slightly exceeding the number of unemployed people.

On the corporate front, more than 100 S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, and second-quarter results have been strong among those that have already reported. Roughly 61% of S&P 500 companies have reported thus far, with 86% exceeding analysts’ earnings expectations. In addition, second-quarter earnings are on pace to grow by nearly 45% year over year, led by the technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors, each of which is on pace to deliver earnings growth of more than 65%. While a portion of the robust second-quarter earnings growth is attributable to nonrecurring items at a handful of large technology companies that benefited from investment-related gains, earnings strength has not been limited solely to large-cap technology companies. The Russell Midcap Index is also on pace to deliver earnings growth of more than 20% in the second quarter. We continue to believe the backdrop remains supportive for equity markets over the coming months, underpinned by strong profit growth, healthy economic activity, and stable labour market conditions.
How do stocks perform around U.S. Midterm elections? – Markets have had their fair share of policy changes to contend with over the past year, and policy implications will remain in focus as the November midterm elections approach. However, while policy headlines can be noisy, history suggests it is best not to play politics with your portfolio. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has generated an average total return of 3.1% in the three months leading up to Election Day, with positive returns in nine of 14 midterm election years, or 64%.* In the three months following Election Day, the S&P 500 generated an average total return of 7.6%, with positive returns in 12 of 14 periods, or 86%.* While there is no guarantee that this historical pattern will repeat in 2026, we believe the data highlight the importance of maintaining a long-term investment strategy aligned with your financial goals rather than allowing political developments to drive portfolio decisions.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Special thanks to our summer intern, Owen Apfel, for his assistance with data collection.}
^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Source for data cited: *FactSet, Edward Jones}

Friday 7/31/2026 p.m.

Stock gain with earnings in focus – North American equity markets closed higher on Friday as investors digested earnings results from Apple and Amazon, which were released after yesterday's market close. Both companies exceeded analyst expectations for quarterly revenue and earnings. However, Apple shares are closed lower following a more cautious outlook from management, while Amazon shares gained over 15% as investors appeared to focus on strong results from the Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment, which posted its fastest revenue growth in more than four years. On the economic front, domestic real GDP grew 0.3% in May, exceeding Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for a 0.1% increase. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector led the gain, with output rising 1.0% during the month. Service-producing industries also posted solid growth, expanding 0.2% in May and signaling improvement in domestic economic activity. Overseas, Asian markets finished higher overnight, led by South Korea's Kospi, which gained nearly 18% amid a rebound in technology shares. European markets also posted modest gains. In fixed income, government bond yields finished higher, with the 10-year GoC yield closing around 3.66% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to above 4.7%.
Tech earnings in focus – Technology earnings were in focus Friday as investors assessed results from Apple and Amazon. Apple exceeded quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, supported by strong iPhone and Mac sales. However, shares are under pressure after management projected lower-than-expected revenue growth for the current quarter and cited supply constraints and rising component costs amid AI-related supply-demand imbalances. Amazon also surpassed earnings and revenue expectations, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue rising 37% year-over-year, its fastest growth in 18 quarters, amid strong demand for AI workloads. Management raised its 2026 capital-expenditure outlook to approximately $220 billion, primarily reflecting continued investment in AWS and AI infrastructure. Despite elevated spending, Amazon posted a record operating margin of 13.7%. Recent earnings from major AI enablers, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, have generated mixed stock-price reactions as investors appear to scrutinize whether rising AI investment is translating into adequate returns. We continue to recommend exposure to technology and the AI theme, balanced with more cyclical areas of the market. Within our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we favour U.S. large-cap stocks and emerging-market equities, both of which provide meaningful technology exposure, in our view, alongside Canadian small- and mid-cap stocks.
Entering a seasonal soft patch, but the backdrop remains supportive – While fundamentals such as earnings growth and economic activity ultimately drive equity markets in our view, seasonal patterns have emerged over time, with some months historically performing better than others. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has generated an average return of 0.16% in August and posted gains 57% of the time.* By comparison, the index has returned an average of 0.75% across all months over the same period, with positive returns 60.6% of the time.* September has historically been the weakest month, declining by an average of 0.8% and posting gains just 44.6% of the time.* Despite these potential near-term seasonal headwinds, we remain constructive on the longer-term outlook for equities. TSX and S&P 500 earnings are on pace to grow by 25% or more this year, while economic activity remains healthy, supported by stable labour-market conditions, steady consumer spending, and improving manufacturing activity. Against this backdrop, we believe equity markets can continue to perform well in the months ahead.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Source for data cited: *FactSet, Edward Jones}

Stocks surge after post-Fed sell-off – Equity markets in the U.S. and Canada were higher across the board on Thursday, after a late-day sell-off on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the gains, up over 2.7%, while the S&P 500 was up about 1.7%, and the Canadian TSX was up about 0.5%. From a S&P sector perspective, the leadership was narrow, with technology far outpacing other sectors, up over 5%. This bounce comes after a sell-off on Wednesday, as stock and bond markets showed concern that the Fed kept rates on hold while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated. The ongoing escalation in Iran also added to uncertainty, with WTI oil prices briefly climbing back above $85. However, today oil prices dipped back below $84, and U.S. and Canadian government bond yields moved modestly lower across the curve. The S&P earnings stories remain mixed across technology, with software giant Microsoft reporting strong earnings driven by its cloud business and AI-related revenue, while Meta missed earnings and saw declining free cash flow due to AI investment. Investors will be looking toward other large-cap tech earnings on Thursday, including reports from Amazon and Apple. Overall, the rotation theme in markets continues to remain intact. Outside of technology, value and cyclical parts of the market are showing signs of life, and within technology, investors were perhaps looking for value in the most downtrodden areas including software and semis.
U.S. GDP growth softer, but consumption holds up – An advanced reading of second-quarter U.S. GDP growth showed economic growth cooling but still positive. GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, below forecast of 2.0% and last quarter's 2.1% reading. However, the biggest contributor to growth remained personal consumption, which rose by 3.2%, above forecasts of 2.3%, suggesting household spending continues to support the broader economy. The detractors to growth for the quarter included government spending and net exports, implying trade remains a drag on economic growth. Of note, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred inflation metric for the Fed, was in line with expectations for June at 3.7% year-over-year, below last month's 4.1%. Core PCE inflation was also in line with forecasts, at 3.3%, slightly below last month's 3.4%. While core inflation did tick lower, it remains well above the Fed's 2.0% target, helping create a tougher backdrop for the Fed to remain neutral on rates. If these conditions hold between now and the next September 16 FOMC meeting, we think the Fed may feel obliged to take more decisive action and raise the fed funds rate to 3.75%-4.0%.
Fed stayed on hold but ready to act – Alongside the conflict in the Middle East, Wednesday's Fed rate announcement was the primary focus for markets, arriving amid heightened uncertainty and renewed gains in energy prices. The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, keeping rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, though three officials dissented in favour of a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh signaled comfort with markets doing some of the policy tightening, pointing to higher bond yields in recent weeks, and reiterated that the Fed will not hesitate to act if needed. The three dissents were not a surprise to us, but they do hint at the direction of travel if geopolitical tensions persist and the labour market remains resilient. We think September could be a live meeting, with the probability of a rate hike rising if geopolitical tensions persist and oil prices continue to trend higher. Upcoming inflation data for July and August will be critical in determining the Fed’s next move, in our view.

Mona Mahajan;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.}

Investment Policy Committee

The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

The IPC meets regularly to talk about the markets, the economy and the current environment, propose new policies and review existing guidance — all with your financial needs at the center.

The IPC members — experts in economics, market strategy, asset allocation and financial solutions — each bring a unique perspective to developing recommendations that can help you achieve your financial goals.

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The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

The IPC meets regularly to talk about the markets, the economy and the current environment, propose new policies and review existing guidance — all with your financial needs at the center.

Learn More

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This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique investment objectives and financial situation. While the information is believed to be accurate, it is not guaranteed and is subject to change without notice.

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Wednesday 8/5/2026 p.m.

Tuesday 8/4/2026 p.m.

Monday 8/3/2026 p.m.

Friday 7/31/2026 p.m.

Thursday 7/30/2026 p.m.

Investment Policy Committee

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